Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2000

CURRENT SHV RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTH
LA WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IN NE TEXAS
AND SW ARKANSAS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
FARTHER WEST NORTH OF TYR.

UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF 4 CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH TX PANHANDLE BY 12/12Z AND WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES
INTO NE TX THURSDAY MORNING. NGM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND PUTS UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 48 HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS CWA THURSDAY. FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO SE OK TO NEAR SPS IN NORTH CENTRAL
TX. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AND REACH SE TEXAS AND MESOETA PUTS BOUNDARY IN SE
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUC AND MESOETA PUTS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SE TEXAS ALONG FRONT
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST HERE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS IT
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS MESOETA SHOWS AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING TO THE SE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
IN EAST TEXAS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN LA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NCEPS 6 HOUR TOTALS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 18Z SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF ABOUT ONE INCH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF CWA. WILL KEEP A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY AND FRONT.

SHV 60/69/57/70  7655 MLU 59/67/55/68 6655
TXK 55/63/53/67  8654 TYR 59/67/55/68 8755
LFK 61/74/57/72  6665

.SHV...NONE.

09

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111630-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
AN AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.