Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST SAT APR 1 2000

FIRST IN SERIES OF VORT MAXES BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
FRONTS. COLD FRONT IS NEARING NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA AND SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THUS HIGH POPS CONTINUING IN
FORECAST. PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IF COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS CWA. MODELS HANDLE THIS DIFFERENT WITH AVN STALLING THE
FRONT. ETA IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
AREA ...THEN BRINGING IT BACK MONDAY. LIKE ETA SOLUTION SO USED IT
IN DETERMINING POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. SINCE IT IS THE
COOLEST MODEL...850 DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS THETA E ANALYSIS SUGGEST
SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE LACKING FOR FLASH FLOOD RAINS. SHEAR IS ALSO
VERY HIGH...AND FAST MOVING SHEARED STORMS ARE NOT TYPICAL HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. EVENT WILL LAST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT. AVN SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO RAIN
TOO LONG INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER EASTERN PORTIONS MAY HAVE
PRECIPITATION EARLY. FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRELIMS...
SHV 59/68/59/70 8868
MLU 60/72/59/71 8878
TXK 54/66/54/64 8768
TYR 56/65/55/65 8868
LFK 62/73/60/70 8868

.SHV...NONE.

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