Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

WILL CLEAN UP ZONES SHORTLY TO ADJUST TIMING AND WORDING FOR STRONG
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FA.  MSAS DATA AND VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTING LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS FROM NEAR KTOP SWWD
TO KEMP TO NRN OKLAHOMA.  DISTANCE/SPEED PROGS ON THIS LINE PLACE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS INTO NWRN CWA AROUND 1 PM...AND ACROSS
REMAINDER OF ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.  RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ALSO SHOWING LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING ALONG INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROF FROM CAMDENTON SWWD INTO CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS.  BEST ECHOS AS
OF 1130 AM AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS.  LINE OF TCU MOVING SEWD
INTO AREA WHERE 15Z RUC FCSTS INDICATE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE
AND ERODING CAP PER LAPS DATA.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS LINE...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST.

KSGF WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING.

.SGF...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NW OF A BRANSON (TANEY CO) TO
ROLLA (PHELPS CO) LINE.

HUDSON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ILLINOIS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT.  THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WILL WORK AGAINST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY
INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM ROLLA TO MARSHFIELD TO BRANSON.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME LOOKS ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE DAY GOES ON. SOME AREAS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE OZARKS TODAY. ANY PLANNED OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED.  THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE OZARKS HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

HUDSON