Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2000

SHORT TERM PROBLEMS ARE THE CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN LATER PERIODS...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE OVERRUNNING RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSTL TO JUST NORTH OF KJLN TO JUST SOUTH
OF KBVO. SFC WAVE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS HOLDING THE FRONT UP
OVER SOUTHWEST MO AND OK. THERMAL AND THETA-E RIDGES EXTEND FROM
EASTERN OK INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO. CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION
LIMITED INSTABILITY INITIALLY...BUT NOW WITH LARGE BREAKS SOUTH OF I-
44...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IF TEMPERATURE CAN GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...
SFC BASED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE...WITH BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHWEST
MO COUNTIES. WILL WATCH SHORT TERM TRENDS AND ADJUST WORDING IN THE
NEW ZFP ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVEMENT THROUGH
18Z. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA A BIT
TOO QUICKLY. MODELS ALL GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT WILL FOLLOW 12Z ETA
AMD MESO ETA FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS...MAKING SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW ALONG FRONT NOW IN NORTHEAST OK EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AR TONIGHT TO NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 12Z SUNDAY. FRONT
HANGS UP FROM WESTERN TN TO CNTRL TX THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG 5H
SHORTWAVES MOVES EAST THROUGH MO. AS ADVERTISED BY PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT PLANNING ON ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO GOING FORECASTS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED BY ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CNTRL MO THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST QPF IS NEAR AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE AR BORDER...INITIALLY WITH CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP
TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH OVERUNNING RAIN. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. NOGAPS/OLD MRF STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL
TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

NOT CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. LOOKS LIKE THAT OVERALL...
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AR BORDER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CNTRL
MO...WHERE IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE:

FCSTID = 26/DSA
SGF   58  61  48  60 /  60  80  80  60
JLN   56  60  47  60 /  70  80  60  40
UNO   61  63  50  60 /  60  80  80  70
VIH   54  56  46  58 /  60  70  70  40

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2000

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAINT LOUIS TO CHANUTE
KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE KEPT
THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WEATHER RELATED ACTIVATION FOR SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT.

...OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

DSA