Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EXTENT/AMOUNT OF
COOLING TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INDICATED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS. WATER VAPOR/WIND
PROFILERS SHOWED FIRST WAVE MOVING INTO IOWA...WITH A SECOND IN
WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON SCHEDULE WITH MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 NOTED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH MID WEEK: WHILE
ALL AGREE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEY DIFFER ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE. AVN/MRF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
...MOVING THE COOL AIR INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NGM/AVN/MRF SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE
FOLLOWING REASONS: 1) MEAN RIDGE POSITION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THAT FAR WEST.  2) THE NGM AND AVN INITIALIZED
THE AIRMASS OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN 1-3 DEGREES C TOO COOL AT 850 MB
THIS MORNING.

WILL GO WITH MORE OF A ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING ZONES
...WHICH WILL SPELL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR AT LEAST NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY.
(COULD GET BACK INTO A SITUATION WHERE INCREASES IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OFFSET COOLER TEMPERATURES.)  WILL LET THE MID SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO LOOK AT BEFORE GETTING OUT THE SCISSORS.

WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FRONT
APPROACHES THURSDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

THANKS TO WFOS LIT...STL...EAX...AND ICT FOR COORDINATION TODAY.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY:
FORECASTER ID=008
SGF 72  99 72 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
JLN 76 100 75 99 73 / 20 20 20 10
UNO 69  98 69 93 65 / 20 20 20 10
VIH 70  98 67 90 62 / 30 30 20 10

.SGF...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH MONDAY.
KS...ZONES 073-097-101
MO...ZONES 055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH LABOR DAY...

THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES. THIS EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT ON
THOSE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXTREME HEAT INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WITH CHRONIC ILLNESSES.

THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE SMALL BRUSH AND GRASSES VERY
DRY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. THOSE PLANNING BARBECUES
ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OZARKS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO
STOCKTON AND CAMDENTON LINE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. SOME MINOR
COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

SUTTON