Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2000

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY

SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY STILL INDICATED FROM KANSAS CITY TO THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION THEN SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN WEST PLAINS AND
POPLAR BLUFF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S NOTED. IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
HAVE SOARED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

12Z MODELS HAVE DONE AN ABOUT FACE AND ARE TRYING TO PAINT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NOT SURE I CAN BUY INTO THAT SCENARIO...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS... A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD AND WEST PLAINS...AND NOTHING IN
JOPLIN TONIGHT. INHERITED A CHANCE POP IN EASTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP IT IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT LET IT GO IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO COOL...SO WILL STAY CLOSER
TO PERSISTENCE. WITH 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK
...EVERYONE COULD REACH 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

THANKS TO TED AT LSX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY
FORECAST ID=008
SGF 072 096 072 097 072 20 20 10 10
JLN 077 100 077 101 076 10 10 10 10
UNO 071 094 072 096 072 20 20 10 10
VIH 070 091 071 093 071 30 30 20 10

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2000

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
ARE INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH.

IN KANSAS, BOURBON AND CRAWFORD.

IN MISSOURI, VERNON, BARTON, SAINT CLAIR, CEDAR, DADE, BENTON,
HICKORY, POLK, MORGAN, CAMDEN, DALLAS, LACLEDE, MILLER, MARIES,
AND PHELPS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY
MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GJ

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2000

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
ARE INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH.

IN KANSAS, BOURBON AND CRAWFORD.

IN MISSOURI, VERNON, BARTON, SAINT CLAIR, CEDAR, DADE, BENTON,
HICKORY, POLK, MORGAN, CAMDEN, DALLAS, LACLEDE, MILLER, MARIES, AND
PULASKI.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY
MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GJ