Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2000

SHORT TERM: CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE
90S. DPTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WITH 18Z SGF SNDG
INDICATING MIXED LAYER STILL RATHER MOIST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
HX VALUES...AND WILL COVER WITH A NOWCAST AS NEEDED. DESPITE LACK OF
LIFTING MECHANISM...MODIFICATION OF 18Z SNDG WILL BREAK CAP THIS
AFTN...YIELDING 3000 J/KG SBCAPE AND LI'S AROUND -7. EXPECT A FEW
PULSE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN STAGNANT FLOW. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE EVENING 20
POP...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

LONG TERM: STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SRN IA/NE WILL REMAIN
AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
DRYING...STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPR RIDGE...AND PREFERRED SW FLOW
WILL BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN MUCH TOO COOL...NOT
SURE IF AUTUMN REGRESSION EQUATIONS HAVE BEEN IMPLEMENTED AT THIS
POINT. FAVOR MESO-ETA 2M TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ON TARGET
THROUGHOUT THIS REGIME. WILL GO ABV GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 90S/LOWER
100S ACROSS THE BOARD. FYI...RECORDS FOR TOMORROW INCLUDE 99 IN SGF
AND 100 IN JLN...AND WILL WORD FCST ACCORDINGLY. DWPTS SHOULD MIX
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...WHICH WOULD EXTINGUISH ANY NEED FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY.

NEXT CHC FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS NERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MESO-ETA FEATURES A MESO
HIGH/LOW COUPLET ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY THE
PRODUCT OF AN MCS THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
RETROGRADING UPR RIDGE...WHERE LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING TRANSITION OF STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THAT MID LVL CAP WILL KEEP BULK OF CONVECTION NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF CHC POP ACROSS NRN
AND ERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...AVN/MRF SOLUTION IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
RETROGRESSION OF UPR RIDGE INTO THE WRN US. THE REALITY OF THIS
SOLUTION WOULD PLAY HEAVILY INTO THE OUTCOME OF HURRICANE DEBBY...
AS WELL AS THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
US. COULD BE A MUCH NEEDED WET PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT FCST WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

CCF NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION ONLY.

FCSTID = 14
SGF   74  97  75  95 /  0  5   5  10
JLN   77 101  77  98 /  0  5   5  10
UNO   72  97  74  96 / 20  5  10  30
VIH   74  97  73  96 / 20  5  20  30

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

BOOKBINDER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2000

...HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES...

UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RELATIVELY
HIGH...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...WHERE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WILL BE
AROUND 100.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE SUN AND
STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS...AND
DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE
LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...
ESPECIALLY IN GRASSY AREAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THOSE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
USE EXTREME CAUTION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NO LARGE SCALE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

BOOKBINDER/LINDENBERG