Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2000

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WITH THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES.

MCS WHICH WAS OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WAS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHED INTO
CENTRAL MO.  RAIN WAS GENERALLY STAYING ON EAST SIDE
OF NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO.  RAINFALL/CLOUDS HAVE
LOWERED THE TEMPS IN ROLLA TO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHILE ELSEWHERE
LOW TO MID 90S HAVE BEEN ATTAINED. JLN WAS ALREADY IN MID 90S WITH HI
OF 103 AT 1 PM...SO AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED.

UPPER ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWS THAT RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  NOT EXPECTING
CURRENT STATIONARY BOUNDRY TO MOVE MUCH AS IT PARALLELS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.  WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS LAST NIGHT/TODAY.  WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE SE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.  WILL KEEP THE 30
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAME AREA...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  BELIEVE WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL CAPPING IN
PLACE.  HAVE GONE WITH THE NGM AS MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE ETA AND TO
THE LESSER EXTENT THE AVN MISSED ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MO.

MAIN FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS CANADIAN SHORT WAVE DIVES SE AND RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST.  MAIN COOLER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
HOWEVER AS CANADIAN HIGH FINALLY MOVES IN.  WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 5
SGF   72  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  30
JLN   75  99  75  98 /  10  10  20  30
UNO   71  94  73  95 /  30  30  30  30
VIH   70  91  71  93 /  30  30  30  30

.SGF...HEAT ADVISORY WEST OF A NEVADA TO MONETT LINE.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2000

...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...
...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS IOWA THIS
MORNING WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
EAST OF A WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON LINE.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.  HEAVY
RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AREAS WHICH DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL CAN EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND
MUGGY AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID
90S AGAIN...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY...BE SURE TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID SUNSTROKE OR OTHER HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS.

SINCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

LINDENBERG