Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

WARM TEMPERATURES THE RULE TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS AT BOTH JLN AND SGF WITH READINGS WELL UP INTO THE
70S. SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM WITH ETA FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH 5H LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NGM/ETA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NGM
IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW CENTER AND THIS IS A TYPICAL
BIAS...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ETA THROUGH 36HRS. AVN SEEMED TOO FAR
NORTH.

DRY LINE ALREADY SET UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTH TEXAS. 3H JET
WILL INTERACT WITH DRY LINE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE
UP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL
PLAINS AS CAP ERODES WITH UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. 50
TO 70KT 85H JET WILL ENSURE GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW.

WITH STRONG 85H JET ALONG WESTERN PORTION OF CWA LATER TONIGHT...
WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...BEST
INGREDIENTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST WITH ETA MOVING THE FRONT INTO
WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. KSGF ETA FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS 85H 65KT SOUTH WIND WITH DEEP MOISTURE LAYER. SOME
MIDLEVEL DRYING TOMORROW AS WELL. 0-3KM HELICITY INCREASES TO OVER
400 M2/S2 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CLOUD COVER. PROGGED LI'S ON THE -2 TO -4
RANGE. BELIEVE SQUALL LINE WILL CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE IF ENOUGH SOME SUN
CAN DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. MRF BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM IN LATE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

FOR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE A BIT. WITH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...ONLY LOOKING FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.

.SGF...NONE.

CCF (PRELIMINARY CCF ONLY):
SGF TB 060/066 042/060 040 264741
JLN TB 063/068 041/060 042 265731
VIH TB 056/065 044/059 040 263762
UNO TB 059/067 045/060 040< 263762

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OZARKS TODAY...

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FORT SCOTT AND NEVADA AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AROUND NOON
...WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST SLOWLY DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE PRIME TIME
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OZARKS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 200 AND
800 PM.

THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS HAVE MADE FLASH FLOODING UNLIKELY...
URBAN AND LOW WATER CROSSING FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON.

...EXTENDED OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

SUTTON