Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2000

KSGF 88D CONTINUED TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH KTLX RADAR
SHOWING ECHOES AS FAR WEST AS OKLAHOMA CITY. EVEN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL DATA WITH NO CLEAR MODEL OF CHOICE.
THREE DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.  FIRST IS THE SHORT WAVE(S) OVER OKLAHOMA RESPONSIBLE FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION: EXPECT THESE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE RAIN ENDING OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND IN CENTRAL PORTIONS BY 06Z. MODELS THEN
INDICATE A REORGANIZATION OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES...WHICH WILL AFFECT
EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LAST...AND STRONGEST...SYSTEM WILL BE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ALL SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIPITATION THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN COULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL LIKELY RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...WITH A
SUSTAINED SOUTH WIND AND BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE RAIN FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL GUIDANCE
SGF BB 068/082 065/079 062 084363
JLN BB 070/084 066/080 063 084363
UNO BB 068/084 064/077 064 085364
VIH BB 066/082 063/078 060 086563

.SGF...NONE.

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-192300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2000

...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...
...CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUT THE SPRINGFIELD MO NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

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