Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...
SPECIFICALLY WHERE AND WHEN WILL THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LONGER TERM
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KSTJ
SWWD TO KP28 TO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF FRONT CERTAINLY PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SFC ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS DEPICTED
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KANSAS CITY
SWWD TO NEAR EMPORIA.  LAPS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATED CAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG AND LIS BLO -6 ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH LITTLE
TO NO CAP.

OVERALL...PREFERRED AVN SOLUTION THIS PACKAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHORT TERM.  PRIND SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEXT HOUR OR TWO...FROM EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.  CANNOT
RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL...AS SOME AREAS GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI ATTM.  SEVERE THREAT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...AS
STRONGER WIND FIELDS ANALYZED OFF OF 12Z UA MAPS ARE PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS AND JUST CLIP
MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.  ATTM...STILL THINK GOING CHANCE POPS WORK
BEST ACROSS THE BOARD BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS PRIOR TO FORECAST
ISSUANCE AND ADJUST WORDING AS APPROPRIATE.  WILL INTRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS JUST BEHIND FROPA FOR A FEW HOURS PER UPSTREAM TRENDS.
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO ACHIEVE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE MINS...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THESE LOWS ACHIEVED UNTIL AROUND 7 TO 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING.

HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THAT TOMORROW MAY FEATURE CONSIDERABLY
MORE CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
INTACT TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...PER AVN 925MB RH PROGS.  COMBINATION OF CAA BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH LACK OF STRONG INSOLATION PER CLOUD COVER AND
ALSO H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C TO +8C...COULD LEAD TO AN UPHILL
STRUGGLE FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY NRN AND
NERN SECTIONS.  WILL ADJUST CLOUD WORDING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR TOMORROW...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE A CAT OR
SO BELOW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.  CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT.  READINGS COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND GOOD DRAINAGE AREAS
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  WILL GENERALLY STICK CLOSE TO COOLER
FAN NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AS MRF AND CANADIAN SEF MODELS
ALL FORECAST MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH RESULTANT BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  MADE LITTLE CHANGES
TO GOING PACKAGE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED NCEP MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

FCSTID = 18
SGF   56  72  49  76 /  40  10   0   0
JLN   57  73  52  77 /  40  10   0   0
UNO   58  74  51  77 /  40  10   0   0
VIH   55  70  47  76 /  40  20   0   0

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

HUDSON