Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS PACKAGE...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES.  06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOWS NEAR KSPS AND KP28 ENEWD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE MO BOOTHEEL.  DEWPOINTS AOA 70F WERE AS FAR
NORTH AS SE KS WITH A FAIRLY DEFINED ISODROSOTHERM GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY...WITH ACTIVITY PULSING UP AND DOWN IN
INTENSITY AS IT APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT IN NATURE.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT FEEL THAT EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME RESOLVING THIS AS WELL GIVEN WEAK SFC WIND FIELDS ON
LATEST OBSERVED DATA.  CAP PROGGED TO ERODE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM +12C AT 00Z (OBSERVED KSGF) TO
BELOW 10C IN MOST AREAS ACROSS SRN MO/SERN KS.  CAPES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MO SHOULD CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE.  WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-44.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY SLIDING SEWD
TOWARDS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES ATTM...AM NOT WILLING TO BE TOO
SPECIFIC AND WILL JUST FLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY.
GIVEN FRONTAL LOCATION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY AOA 70F...
WILL BOOST READINGS A CAT OR SO TODAY IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER WHERE READINGS COULD
GET CLOSE TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.

PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND SE KS COULD SEE A DECENT RAIN EVENT TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS HIGHLY PROBABLE
FROM THE ETA/AVN PROGS TONIGHT ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK.  DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PROGGED BY THE PREFERRED ETA MODEL ON THE 310K
SURFACE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SW
MO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECAYING MCS MOVING
EWD INTO THAT AREA PER H7-H3 THICKNESS PATTERN.  WILL STAY CLOSER TO
WARMER FAN NUMBERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO KEEP A LOW POP IN ON THURSDAY JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR REMNANTS OF EXPECTED MCS AND
FURTHER NORTH TO ADDRESS QUESTIONABLE FRONTAL LOCATION AS IT  WORKS
BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY.  THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE EFFECTIVE
FRONT ENDS UP AND ALSO EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION...REFER TO
LATEST SWODY2.  MODELS ALL HINT AT ANOTHER MCS FORMING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH AVN MODEL DID HINT THAT
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS FOCUS FOR MCS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA HAS PROGGED.  FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO GIVE FUTURE SHIFTS SOME WIGGLE ROOM.

QUICK PEEK AT THE 00Z MRF WOULD INDICATE THAT GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING...SO LITTLE CHANGES PLANNED
BEYOND PERHAPS MINOR TWEAKING OF TIMING WORDING.  THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING KICT...KEAX.

FCSTID = 18
SGF   86  62  76  62 /  30  50  50  50
JLN   87  62  77  63 /  30  60  50  50
UNO   89  64  78  62 /  30  50  50  50
VIH   86  57  76  62 /  30  20  40  50

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

HUDSON