Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

TSRA FORMING IN E TN/SW VA AND ACRS BLUE RIDGE ALG SFC THETA-E
BOUNDARY/FNT. 17Z ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW FROM WRN NC INTO SRN WV.
FEEL THAT MORE STORMS WILL FIRE OVER WRN NC AS BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHIFTS HERE BY 00Z.

NGM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CONVECTION CURRENTLY ERUPTING ALONG SFC
THETA-E BOUNDARY FROM ERN TN-SW VA BEST. NGM SHOWING UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IN THIS VICINITY AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...MODEL QPFS DO NOT FIT WHAT IS GOING ON ATTM...AS NONE
EXCEPT FOR RUC SHOWING ANY IN THIS AREA.

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POPS AND I WILL BE CENTERING IN ON
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS LOOKING AT WHERE THE
BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/MOIST CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGNCE
GRADIENTS LIE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF POPS.

LOOKS LIKE MOST OF WEAK IMPULSES AND SFC WAVES ARE GOING TO STAY
SOUTH OF FA OVER SC/NC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS B4 NRN STREAM S/W
CURRENTLY NR NRN MONTANA PUSHES A FNT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

ETA/MESOETA MOST AGRESSIVE WITH INVERTED TROF AND AS PER MIDNIGHT
FORECASTER THOUGHTS...THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT NGM/AVN SHOW ONE AS
WELL. TSTMS WISE...WITH FLOW OUT OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW CLDS ARE
GOING TO FORM IN UPSLOPE REGIONS AND LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY
HIGH THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN TONIGHT IN NW NC INTO
PARTS OF SW VA...MAINLY ALG AND WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. PLAN ON MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON SKY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT THINK
SKIES WILL CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO ESE FLOW.

SUNDAY...WILL HAVE CHC POPS PRETTY MUCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SOUTH OF THE GREENBRIER/SHD VLYS. HIGHEST POPS IN NRN MTNS OF NC.
PLAN ON LEAVING OUT FOR ROA-LYH. CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LOOKS
GOOD FROM WHAT IM SEEING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN NW NC...THEN FNT
COMES IN WITH NRN S/W TROF MONDAY AND EVERYONE WILL SEE A CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CWA.

THINK FWC/FAN MAY BE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS AHEAD OF FNT MONDAY SO
BUMPED UP A BIT.

COORDINATION CALLS ARE WELCOME.

.RNK...
.VA...NONE.
.WV...NONE.
.NC...NONE.

MG

NCZ003>006-020-031800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY.  THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM AND HUMID AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE MEANS FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SKYWARN
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION.

MG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012-015>017-032-043>045-058-059-031915-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE-CAMPBELL-CARROLL-CASWELL-CHARLOTTE-FLOYD-GRAYSON-
HALIFAX-HENRY-PATRICK-PITTSYLVANIA-ROCKINGHAM-STOKES-SURRY-WATAUGA-
WILKES-WYTHE-YADKIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONE...DANVILLE...DOBSON...EDEN...GALAX...
LYNCHBURG...MARTINSVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON...SPARTA...WILKESBORO...
WYTHEVILLE
218 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

.NOW...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION AT 215 PM EDT. IN VIRGINIA...DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL CAMPBELL...NORTHEAST PITTSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEAST WYTHE...EASTERN PATRICK AND WESTERN HENRY. AND OVER
CENTRAL WILKES...SOUTHWEST SURRY NORTHERN STOKES AND NORTHWEST
ROCKINGHAM IN NORTH CAROLINA.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AND
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0258 PM    6 N CRITZ                 VA   .88 INCH HAIL
06/3/00   PATRICK