Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2000

GOOD SWATH OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY APCHG THE CWA FROM THE W AND
GIVEN INSTAB ARND PLUS UPR DIFFLUENCE APRS ANOTHER NOISY EVE IN
STORE. ONCE NRN SPEED MAX PER ETA DEPARTS LATER THIS EVE SHOULD SEE
A BIT DRIER AIR BEGIN TO FEED IN AT LEAST ALOFT AS VAPOR LOOP
INDICATES FROM GOING TRENDS. THUS WILL GO WITH HIGH EVE POPS ALL
ZONES FOR WATCH THEN TAPERING TO A CHC MAINLY BEFORE MIDNGT AS
EXPECT MAJ OF ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. WITH PTNL TO
SEE SOME CLRG LATE AND CONTG SOUPY DEWPTS MAY ALSO MENTION FOG
OVRNGT.

FRI...BEST UPR SUPPORT TO LIFT N WITH ONLY WEAK UPR RIPPLES ALONG
WITH DIFF HEATING AND HIGH CAPE TO HELP FIRE TSRA. SLGTLY DRIER AIR
AND MORE MIXING...AS SFC RIDGING STRENGTHENS A BIT LKLY TO LIMIT
CVRG ESPCLY ERN/NE ZONES WITH BEST CHCY POP STILL NEEDED W WHERE
MODELS PUSH A WEAK UPR VORT THRU IN THE AFTN. OTRW PRTLY SNY AND BIT
WARMER GIVEN MORE SUN AND BETTER W/SW BLYR GRAD. SOME LINGERING
EVE TSRA LKLY ESPCLY W FRI EVE BEFORE NEXT S/W TROF AND ASSOCD SFC
FRONT BEGIN TO APCH FROM THE NW TWD SAT MORN. LOOKS LIKE FAR NW
ZONES COULD SEE ADTNL SHRA CHCS BY EARLY SAT AS PRE-FRONTAL APCHS SO
WONT LIMIT TIMING OF POPS TO JUST EVE THERE OTRW PC.

SAT...MODELS BEGIN TO SAG SFC CD FRONT SWD TWD THE AREA PRECEDED BY
WEAK LEE TROF OUT E. AGAIN APRS THE BEST CVRG TO DVLP OVER THE W
CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND RR OF UPR JET WITH ONLY WDLY SCT TSRA FAR SE
TIL LATE.

EXTENDED...LOTS OF QUESTS WITH HOW FAR S FRONT AND ASSOCD DRY AIR
MIGHT PUSH BEFORE RETURN FLOW RE-DVLPS EARLY WEEK. WITH ONLY A WEAK
SFC RIDGE TO THE N...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT DRYING AND THUS PLAN TO KEEP
SOME MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA GOING TIL TUE FOR NOW.

LIKE SLGTLY WARMER FWC TEMPS FOR HIGHS THRU SAT OTRW LITTLE CHANGE
FROM CURRENT SCENARIO.

.RNK...
.VA...NONE.
.WV...NONE.
.NC...NONE.

JH