Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
200 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2000

WILL BE SENDING QUICK ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SECTIONS OF NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORT-TERM WILL BE THIS EVENING AS VORT
CENTER CROSSING OH RIVER VALLEY DIVES SE THROUGH SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC COUPLED WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE CAUSED BY CAA ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT
CENTER WARRANT CHC POPS THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF CWA. WILL LIKELY
INTRODUCE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR TRIAD AREA AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT ZONE ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF GSO/INT REGION BEFORE 23-00 UTC. APPEARS THAT
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OF CWA AS BEST LIFT SLIDES SE ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME PLAN
TO GO WITH A SMALL CHC EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE 40-50% POP SHOULD SUFFICE SOUTH.

AFTER VORT CENTER SCOOTS THROUGH...LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER DRIER AIR INTO AREA. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
SUNNY SKIES SUN/MON. TEMPS RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS. 850 FLOW MAINLY
N-NW SUN BUT BECOMES W-SW MON. WITH 850 RIDGE CENTER SOUTH OF AREA 12Z
MON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MON AT LEAST A CATEGORY (POSSIBLY TWO)
WARMER THAN HIGHS SUN.

AS FOR EXTENDED...APPEARS THAT MOST OF SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NEXT SYSTEM ON TUE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC.
ADDITIONALLY...RETURN OFF GULF BRIEF AT BEST. DO EXPECT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TUE COMPARED TO MON BUT WHAT RAIN THAT
OCCURS APPEARS TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST. HOWEVER SINCE CHC ALREADY IN
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS
HANDLE SITUATION.

RDU 43/76/46/81 3000                     GSO 43/74/46/79 1000
                    FAY 47/78/48/83 4000
.RAH...NONE.

WSS