Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

TOUGH FORECAST FOR SHORT-TERM. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY SIGNIFICANT
MECHANISM TO KEY ORGANIZED PRECIP ACROSS REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA/MESO-ETA SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS.

AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC VERY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME WITH LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -7/-8 AND SURFACE THETA-E MAX STRETCHING W-E ACROSS
REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO
SOUTH OF BECKLEY. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CROSSING TN VALLEY AT MID-DAY.

DPROG/DT ANALYSIS OF MODELS DEPICTS MOISTURE AXIS ORIGINALLY
SITUATED OVER SC/SRN NC TONIGHT IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS NOW PROJECTED
TO BE MORE OVER NC. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKING
NO HEAD WAY SOUTH AND SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE E-SE AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS. WITH PRECIP WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS
AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. INSPITE OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE SOME RUN-OFF PROBLEMS DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS AND ROCK-HARD TOP SOIL. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE OVER TRIAD
REGION INITIALLY BUT THEN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SE PIEDMONT/
WESTERN SANDHILLS TOWARD 00Z THEN TRANSLATE NEWD BY 04Z.

APPEARS MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIP SUN WILL BE OVER EASTERN FRINGES OF
CWA. WILL CONT MORNING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN HALF  BUT EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIP TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/E OF I-95 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME. FAVOR HIGHS SUN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER THAN FAN MOS.

APPEARS NEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. S/W DIGS
ACROSS GREAT LAKES MON WITH VORT AXIS/ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
SWINGING ACROSS REGION AFT 00Z/TUE. COULD SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY MON
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT CENTER PROGGED TO CROSS
REGION.

FOR EXTENDED...WILL GO WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TUE AND DRY WED/THU
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS BY THU.

RDU 64/78/63/80 6613                     GSO 63/77/63/79 6313
                    FAY 67/80/68/84 7613
.RAH...NONE.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
1120 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-032120-
ALAMANCE NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-
EDGECOMBE NC-FORSYTH NC-FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-
HALIFAX NC-HARNETT NC-HOKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
MOORE NC-NASH NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-
SAMPSON NC-SCOTLAND NC-STANLY NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-
WILSON NC-
1120 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2000

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM AREAS. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BLANKETS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT MID-DAY. A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO EXTEND NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDSBORO TO
LILLINGTON TO ALBEMARLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEED TO STAY TUNED TO A
RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES NEED TO KEEP A EYE ON THE
SKY...AND HEAD TO SHORE AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF IMPENDING BAD WEATHER.

WSS