Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2000

MID LVL LOW FCST TO MOVE FROM JUST W TO JUST S OF FA AND GRADUALLY
OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NC
COAST SE. REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...DEPARTURES THIS MORNING WERE
AT OR A LTL ABV 1.5 FT. THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR A LTL ABV
2.0 FT FOR THE AROUND-LATE-AM-WED HIGH TIDE...WHICH WOULD PUT TIDES
JUST BELOW MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AT THE MORE FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS. SFC LOW AT ABT 1017 MB CERTAINLY NOT CAUSING MUCH OF A
TIDAL SURGE. RATHER THAN BOLDLY DROP THE WATCH...AND RATHER THAN
UPGRADING IT TO A WARNING...WILL KEEP THE WATCH AND MENTION OF MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING WHERE THEY ARE.

REGARDING INLAND FLOODING...ETA HAS BEEN DOING A VERY NICE JOB OF
DELINEATING AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ITS LIFT...LOW TO MID LVL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH HYDROLOGIST AND
PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH FOR NE MD...NE DE AND SERN PA WHERE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED REST OF MD ERN
SHORE...DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ BUT BELIEVE THESE AREAS CAN TAKE IT.
WITH THE GOOD LIFT AND SI VALUES BELOW 2...PUT IN THE MENTION OF
TSRA DOWN S. NRN AND MUCH OF ERN FA JUST WENT WITH DZ AND A CHC OF
RA PER ETA FIELDS. MADE THE PCPN LINGER A LTL TMRW DOWN S.

WINDS SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...AND
OVER THE WATER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE FORCE.
NOT WIND ADVSY LEVELS OVER LAND EITHER.

DIDNT QUIBBLE MUCH WITH TEMPS.

.PHI...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT PAZ060-067-MDZ008-DEZ001.

       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ALONG ATLANTIC COAST FROM LITTLE
       EGG INLET NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.

       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
       AND FOR THE DELAWARE BAY.

MPD

NJZ012>014-019>021-026-DEZ002-MDZ012-015-019-020-220400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2000

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE - ESPECIALLY IN THE BACK BAYS...

THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT GUSTY ONSHORE WIND AND AN ALMOST FULL
MOON WILL CAUSE TIDES TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
MORE GENERAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON THE BACK BAYS AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW
WATER LEVELS IN THE BACK BAYS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE AT LOW TIDE
...INCREASING THE THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE.

HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 AND 1030
PM THIS EVENING AND 800 AND 1100 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 830 AND 1130 PM TONIGHT
AND 900 AM AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TIDE IN THE BACK BAYS OCCURS
LATER THAN ON THE OCEAN FRONT. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COULD BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON
WIND SPEEDS.

RESIDENTS OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
INLAND.

NOTE THAT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE OCEANFRONT AND BACKBAYS OF ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. REFER TO THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

UNTIL THE TIDES RAIN AND NORTHEAST WIND ABATE...ALL COASTAL INTERESTS
SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES.

FOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS
COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV. YOU CAN ACCESS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS... WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV.ER.PHI

TFGs/RPW

MDZ012-015-019-020-DEZ002-003-220600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - HEAVY RAIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
455 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2000

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. UP TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SO FAR
TODAY...AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

USE CAUTION IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING THIS EVENING. IT IS OFTEN
DIFFICULT TO SPOT STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AFTER DARK. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS WATER COVERED AREAS...AS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU
THINK.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.