Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER THAT...THE WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.

LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND OKLAHOMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 88D LOOPS CLEARLY DEFINE THE
FRONT ALONG THIS LINE...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT.

MORNING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN H5 TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN H5 70 KNOT
JET MAX WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE AN H8 50 KNOT JET MAX STRETCHED ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. PROMINENT AT ALL LEVELS UP THROUGH 500 MB WAS AN AXIS OF
WARM...DRY AIR SERVING TO CAP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A CLASSIC LOADED-GUN APPEARANCE ON
SOUNDINGS.

SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY VALUES ALL POINT TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. IN FACT...MSAS SURFACE
COMPUTED LI/S ARE ALREADY -9 FROM CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THIS AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...THERMODYNAMICS
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SPC/S MODERATE RISK IS OUTLINED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
ADJACENT AREAS. WILL USE "LIKELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING" WORDING OVER
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT
ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...STRESSING
GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

AS FRONT DEPARTS FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY...COULD BE SOME LINGERING
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE THROUGH THE
70S ON SATURDAY IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WILL USE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD WARMER FWC
NUMBERS DURING THE DAY AND COOLER FAN NUMBERS AT NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.PAH...NONE

PRESLEY

ILZ075-076-130045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS
COULD REACH INTO NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY ILLINOIS AFTER 730
PM...POSSIBLY ARRIVING NEAR MOUNT VERNON AT 800 PM. THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY REACH FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS BETWEEN 830 AND 900 PM.

NO SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY AFFECT FOR THE JEFFERSON
AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...HOWEVER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES DO EXIST NORTH AND WEST OF THESE
COUNTIES.

STORMS IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING.

PERSONS LIVING IN OR PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THESE COUNTIES SHOULD
KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST WEATHE?R UPDATES.

SMITH

MOZ107-108-130130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
739 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
AROUND 35 MPH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF CARTER COUNTY...WEST OF VAN BUREN AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 830 PM. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
CARTER COUNTY AND INTO PARTS WESTERN RIPLEY COUNTY BY 900 PM.

NO SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY AFFECT FOR CARTER OR
RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WEST OF THESE COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.

STORMS IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVE HAD A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL SINCE 700 PM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALSO.

PERSONS LIVING IN OR PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THESE COUNTIES SHOULD
KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
904 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 PM    VAN BUREN                 MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   RIPLEY                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
955 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0950 PM    GEFF                      IL   1.50 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

CN

ILZ085-088-089-130400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER UNION COUNTY ILLINOIS...

AT 1020 PM CDT...PADUCAH DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER UNION COUNTY ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH...THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL OF ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER. SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE MOUNT
PLEASANT...GOREVILLE...AND CREAL SPRINGS. RESIDENTS IN AND CLOSE TO
THESE TOWNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PRESLEY