Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

AM SOUNDING DATA AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE OVER FA DURING 18Z-00Z FRAME TODAY...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SO. SOME PARAMETERS ON THIS RUN OF ETA NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS LAST
EITHER...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 7C/KM...AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD HAS RESULTED IN LOWER HELICITIES. STILL
CAPES ARE IN MID GRAND RANGE...LI'S SUB ZERO...K'S AOA 30...SWEAT
AROUND 300...AND TT'S NR/ABOVE 50.

12Z ETA RUN IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING 45 KT LLJ BY 00Z TODAY...BUT
IT'S DISPLACED FURTHER E-WARD THIS RUN. STILL ANTICIPATE SURFACE LOW
TO EJECT OUT OF PLAINS AND RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. NOSE
OF 100+KT H3 JET WL DRIVE UPPER TROF IN ITS BACKSIDE AND DEEPEN SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO IL/IN...THOUGH DEEPENING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED
AS YDAYS RUNS. RESULT IS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS MORE
PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND WIND FIELD THAT IS LESS DIRECTIONALLY
SHEARED.

BELIEVE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WL BE LATE IN PM/EXTENDING INTO
EVENING...WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST DEVELOPMENT WL BEGIN.
MODELS STILL SOUP MRH FIELDS UP JUST TO OUR EAST...SO WL LIKELY
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ERN ZONES. WL MAINTAIN MONITOR UP THRU PRESS
TIME ON FINE TUNING AND ANY WATCH RELATED INFO. APPEARS PARAMETERS
IN OUR FA SHOW MAIN THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE/STRAIGHT LINE
WIND EVENT WITH FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO INDICATING HAIL
THREAT.

AFTER FROPA EARLY TONIGHT TIGHT WAKE GRADIENT SETS UP AND USHERS IN
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS. WL HIT WINDS HARD BUT NOT HEADLINE
UNTIL SVR WX THREAT MINIMIZES. CHANGE-OVER TO -SN STILL POSSIBLE NRN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING SAT. WL FOCUS MOST ENERGY ON 1ST 36 HRS OF ZFP
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1017 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0105 PM    FROHNA                    MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   PERRY                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0123 PM    3 W MURPHYSBORO           IL   .88 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0145 PM    MAKANDA                   IL   .88 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0145 PM    4 S CARBONDALE            IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   JACKSON

0151 PM    2 S CARBONDALE            IL   .75 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0201 PM    7 W MARION                IL   1 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   WILLIAMSON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER. ALSO 3/4 INCH
                                          HAIL IN CAMBRIA.

0218 PM    MARION                    IL   1 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   WILLIAMSON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER. ALSO 50 MPH
                                          WIND GUST IN MARION AND
                                          LOCALIZED STREET
                                          FLOODING.

0239 PM    GALATIA                   IL   .88 INCH HAIL
04/07/99   SALINE                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    ORCHARDVILLE              IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/07/00   WAYNE                          HAIL COVERING THE
                                          GROUND. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-081100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THE MIDDAY WEATHER MAP...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM
NW MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID
DOWN BY EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...
THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE SQUALL LINE...THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE QUAD STATE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

STORM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

JAP

ILZ082-083-071800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

AT 1230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING A THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTlY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH...AFFECTING SUCH COMMUNITIES AS DALE...BROUGHTON...AND NORRIS
CITY THROUGH 1 PM.

PRESLEY

ILZ076>078-081>088-INZ081-085-MOZ076-086-087-071830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000

AT 1250 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR PRINCETON INDIANA TO MCLEANSBORO
AND WEST FRANKFORT ILLINOIS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING PERRYVILLE MISSOURI. AS THESE STORMS PROCEED EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT SUCH
COMMUNITIES AS PERRYVILLE MISSOURI AND MURPHYSBORO ILLINOIS THROUGH
130 PM. IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...EXPECT HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

PRESLEY