Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 AM CST THU NOV 9 2000

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION...EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH PADUCAH THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK TROUGHS WERE APPENDED TO
THE FRONT AND EXTENDED EASTWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR MEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 00Z THU.

THE NGM...ETA...AND AVN ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
SURFACE FEATURES. ALL CARRY THE LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...WITH STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER AREA TODAY INTO
TNGT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING TSRA'S...GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN FOR TODAYS PACKAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE ETA TAKING A
MORE NORTHERN PATH AND THE NGM TAKING THE SOUTHERN MOST ROUTE.
EITHER WAY THEY ALL BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY
12Z FRIDAY. THUS...WILL BE THE END OF PRECIP CHC'S FOR THE QUAD
STATE. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP. THEREFORE...ALL PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL HOLD
ON TO PRECIP TODAY AND END IT WEST OF MISSISSIPPI TNGT AND TAPER OFF
TO SCATTERED EAST OF THE RIVER. WITH LOW ON TOP OF PAH'S FA WILL
KEEP THUNDER GOING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH LOW
MOVING RAPIDLY WILL MONITOR CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS ON WORDING
FOR SEMO I.E. THUNDER VS. SHOWERS BUT ENDING TYPE WORDING IS LIKELY
IN THE FIRST PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. MAIN CONCERN ON ENDING PRECIP IS
HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND TO DEAL WITH. KLZK RADAR INDICATES BACK EDGE
EXITING ARKANSAS ATTM.

FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WILL USE A BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS AS
ALREADY REFLECTED IN GOING ZONES.

.PAH...NONE.

KH

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092>094-KYZ003>005-091645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
940 AM CST THU NOV 9 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WEST KENTUCKY...

AT 940 AM...WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM CARBONDALE...SOUTH THROUGH CAIRO ILLINOIS...TO
BARDWELL KENTUCKY. THIS LINE WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH. THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF
MOUNT VERNON AND MARION ILLINOIS BY 1000 AM. GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.

MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAMM

ILZ076>078-083-INZ085-KYZ014>018-020>022-091730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1050 AM CST THU NOV 9 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...

AT 1050 AM...WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM
WAYNE CITY TO CARMI ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST TO MADISONVILLE AND
HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 35
MPH. SOME TOWNS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY 1130 AM INCLUDE...CARMI...
POSEYVILLE...HENDERSON...AND MADISONVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES	.

LAMM

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-087-111-112-
114-091915-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 AM CST THU NOV 9 2000

THIS IS A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. THE OUTLOOK
AREA IS FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND A SMALL PART
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 4 PM. IN WEST KENTUCKY...THE WATCH
INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF HENDERSON...DAVIESS...MCLEAN...MUHLENBERG...
AND TODD. A FEW OF THE CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE EVANSVILLE...
HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...AND CENTRAL CITY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. NARROW LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN THE TORNADO WATCH
AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME WEST KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE STABLE AIR. DUE TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...
A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MOTION OF ALL STORMS WILL BE NORTH AT CLOSE TO 45 MPH. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE THREAT OF ALL STORMS WILL
END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION.

YORK

KYZ021-022-091815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 AM CST THU NOV 9 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

AT 1125 AM...THE TODD COUNTY EOC REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH NEAR
TRENTON KENTUCKY...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY. SOME POWER OUTAGES WERE ALSO REPORTED.

THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MADISONVILLE TO
NEAR TRENTON KENTUCKY AT 1130 AM CST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER
NORTHWEST TODD COUNTY...THESE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREENVILLE AND
CENTRAL CITY AREAS BY NOON. AREAS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM CAN
EXPECT WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF TENNESSEE AND SOME OF
THESE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF TODD COUNTY.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

SPODEN