Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CST WED NOV 8 2000

NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE DEEPER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE NGM/ETA...WHICH
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW OVER CGI AROUND 12Z. AVN IS SIMILAR...TAKING
LOW OVER PAH AROUND 12Z. PER HPC DISCUSSIONS...THE STRONGER THAN
PROGGED 500 MB COLD CORE WITH THIS SYSTEM /-27 AT EL PASO/ SUPPORTS
THE DEEPER INTENSITY FCST.

GIVEN THE NEW MODEL TRENDS...PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AS CLOSE AS
BNA AT 19Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT MOISTURE AND WIND
FIELDS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. GREATEST RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD MORNING...AS 500 MB COLD CORE /NEAR MINUS 20/ APPROACHES SE
MISSOURI. ELEVATED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED IN THE COLDER AIR...AS KLZK RADAR SHOWED THIS MORNING.
WILL LIKELY MENTION THUNDER ALL ZONES TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER
MENTION IN THE EAST. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CURVATURE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...ESPECIALLY
ACCORDING TO ETA PROGS.

FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...NGM AND AVN MOS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT
PAH/EVV AND WILL FOLLOW.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MRF HAS BEEN SIGNALLIN`G A TREND TOWARD A
FLATTER...MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS MAY BE THE LAST OF THE
STRONG SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF
REGION.

.PAH...NONE.

MY

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