Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2000

SQUALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT AS
IT PUSHES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TRACKING
FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RUC/MESO-ETA BOTH SEEM TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF FRONT. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND MODELS
IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE GREATEST OF THESE VALUES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WW #743 VALID UNTIL 7
PM CDT FOR NORTHERN TIER OF IL AND IN COUNTIES. DO NOT EXPECT THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER WW FOR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH BUT WILL WAIT TIL THE
LAST MINUTE TO SEND ZONES JUST IN CASE. LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWED FRONT
DRAPED NE-SW FROM WEST CNTRL IN TO EXTRM S IL TO EXTRM SE MO TO N
CNTRL AR TO EXTRM SE OK INTO NE TX. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SE
PORTION OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. AFTER FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT...STRONG
PVA...AND GOOD MID LEVEL OMEGA.

IN WAKE OF FRONT HIGH PRESURE WILL OVERSPREAD REGION BUT WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY IN FAST FLOW. ON FRIDAY COMBINATION OF
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE FRONT ASSOC
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST SO
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE.

.PAH...SVR TSTM WATCH #743 IN EFFECT TIL 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF SW IN
EXCEPT WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES AND PERRY...JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN
...WAYNE...HAMILTON...EDWARDS...WABASH...AND WHITE IN ILLINOIS.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-202000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF THE
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES RECREATION AREA AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THAT'S WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PGW

MOZ076-086-087-100-109-110-202100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 250 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR PERRYVILLE
TO NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY TO GREENVILLE MISSOURI.

THE STRONGEST STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY...AT
40 MPH.

BY 400 PM CDT...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED TO CAPE GIRARDEAU
TO DEXTER MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST STORM WILL BE NEAR PERRYVILLE
MISSOURI. ANTICIPATE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH WITH THESE STORMS.