Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2000

MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. PAH VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR NEW CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...AND PAH
RADAR SHOWS THIS TREND OCCURRING. AS OF 07Z...KPAH 3 THSND FOOT
WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY 1030Z. LARGE AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO ZONES WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL WORDING FOR EARLY MORNING PRECIP. STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
THIS MCS MAY LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR EVV-PAH-POF LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS OVER SE ZONES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TIMING OF POST FRONTAL CLEARING IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL LOW LEVEL RH PROGS. NGM DRIES THE LOW LEVELS FASTER THAN
THE ETA. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...DRYING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE ALL THAT
QUICKLY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCT TO BKN CU.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH
CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH NGM
MOS HIGHS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST PLANNED.

AVN IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FA THURSDAY. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO
EXTENDED...OTHER THAN TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

MY