Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY PERIODS AND
FRONTAL POSITION IN THE LATER PERIODS.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTER OVER KANSAS WITH A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA
TO NEAR PIA IN CENTRAL IL. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM LAKE MI THROUGH
CENTRAL IL TO JUST EAST OF UNO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A 500 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWING TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT DISSIPATING
AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHTS TSRA'S.

WHERE THESE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTERACT...EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL IL...WILL BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR MCS INITIATION THIS
EVENING INTO TNGT. AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING MCS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. IT LOOKS MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BECOMING MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATED WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE OF PAH FA TO
ENCOUNTER TSRA...ALTHOUGH NE PTNS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE BEST CHC.
MCS SHOULD ASSIST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...AS THE 12Z/WED MODEL RUN ADVERTISES. BEST VORTICITY
AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER PAH FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL NOT RULE OUT EVENING CHC OF
TSRA...AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE FA FROM
THIS AM TSRA'S.

BEST CHC TONIGHT WL BE NE...TAPERING TO LEAST CHC SW. AFTER TNGT NGM
TRIES TO PUSH FRONT ON THROUGH FA INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH ETA
HOLDING THE BOUNDARY IN SEMO. WILL LIKELY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARY...WITH BEST CHC BY THEN IN SEMO...TAPERING
TO LEAST CHC NE PORTIONS. THIS TREND IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN CURRENT
ZONES. THUS...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ON POPS WITH BREAKOUT
ESSENTIALLY REMAINING INTACT.

FWC MOS PERFORMED WELL WITH OVNGT LOWS AND TDAY HIGHS...OUTSIDE
PRECIP A3REAS...AND IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH FAN NUMBERS. THUS WILL
FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

.PAH...NONE.

KH

MOZ100-109-240000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2000

...STRONG STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF POPLAR BLUFF...

AT 629 PM CDT...THE STORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN 10 AND 25 MILES
NORTHWEST POPLAR BLUFF. THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND
10 MPH.  EXPECT RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN BUTLER AND SOUTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES TO BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS BEFORE 700 PM.  VERY HEAVY
RAIN\...BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PGW

MOZ100-240033-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
700 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2000

...A STRONG STORM WAS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF POPLAR BLUFF...

AT 659 PM CDT...THE STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE.
IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. BY 730 PM...EXPECT THE STORM
TO IMPACT RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY.  SOME TOWNS IN THIS
AREA INCLUDE PIEDMONT...PATTERSON...LODI...AND SILVA. TORRENTIAL
RAINS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM.

PGW