Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2000

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM COLD SECTOR IN SRN IN TO WARM SECTOR OVER NRN MO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK CU FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN PERIPHERY OF PAH FA...WITH OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE TOPS
NOTED UPSTREAM IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT VORT MAX THAT WL COME INTO
PLAY FOR US LATE TONIGHT-FRI. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO LOWER
OH VALLEY WL LIKELY KEEP ANY EVENING POPS ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT. WL
WAIT CLOSE TO PRESS TIME FOR FINAL CALL ON NEED FOR EVENING MENTION
AND ANY RESULTANT COUNTY-BREAK OUTS.

TRENDS OF MESOETA/ETA FOR LAST 2 RUNS HAVE THEM COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH STEADY/CONSISTENT AVN...PARTICULARLY ON QPF. HOWEVER...ETA
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE TAD FASTER THAN AVN...AND OUR LATEST
FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS THE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AVN APPROACH. ALSO...THE NGM NOW APPEARS TO BE
COMING INTO LINE WITH THE AVN FROM THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM.
THIS LENDS FURTHER SUPPORT TOWARD OUR LEAN ON THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
AND STEADY AS SHE GOES AVN AS SOLUTION OF CHOICE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT WITH K INDICES IN
U30S...TOTAL TOTALS IN U40S...AND NEGATIVE LIS. GRADUAL DEEPENING
IN SATURATION OF COLUMN ALSO NOTED...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY (IE SRN 2/3 FA)...WHERE COLUMNAR DEPTH OF
NEAR SATURATION IS ABOUT 2.5 KM. AS VORT MAX COMES INTO PLAY LATE
TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTION SOUTH SHOULD PRODUCE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATORS. BUT AREAL COVERAGE STILL LOOKS SCT SO WL MAINTAIN CHC
CATEGORY POPS. CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH TO EXTEND THEM...AND ATTM
AM INCLINED TO STICK WITH THE AVN SUGGESTION OF KEEPING FAR NERN
PTNS FA DRY...TAPERING TO HIGHEST POPS SW.

WITH LEAN ON AVN...AM ALSO INCLINED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SMALL FRI
POP...MAINLY ONLY SRN MOST PTNS FA WHERE BOUNDARY WL BE LINGERING.
AFTERWARDS ANOTHER SYSTEM SKIRTS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WHILE AVN TRIES TO PAINT SOME QPF FOR US...FAN POPS
DONT RESPOND. WL TAKE NOTE OF SUGGESTION BUT CHOOSE TO WAIT FOR
SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE FOR NOW...THUS RETAINING DRY
EXTENDED OUTLOOK AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.

TEMP PERFORMANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL BALLPARK OF GUIDANCE AND WL
THEREFORE ACCEPT IN GENERAL. WL FAVOR TAD COOLER FAN NOS 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND...AS NGM HAS SHOWN 48 HOUR WARM BIAS THAT HAS NOT PANNED OUT
LAST COUPLE DAYS.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-MOZ076-032200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

AT 355 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO HERRIN ILLINOIS LINE.
THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

AT 345 PM...MARBLE SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR MAKANDA IN SOUTHEAST
JACKSON COUNTY AND NEAR DU QUOIN IN PERRY COUNTY ILLINOIS. 50 MPH
WINDS WERE ALSO REPORTED NEAR MAKANDA.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH TWO
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

ILZ084>094-KYZ001>017-020>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-032300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

AT 455 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

ONE STORM IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN BOLLINGER
COUNTY...NEAR THE WAYNE AND STODDARD COUNTY LINES AROUND THE ZALMA
AND ARAB AREAS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WAS NEAR HEROD AND
HICKS NEAR THE POPE...SALINE...HARDIN COUNTY INTERSECTION.

AND IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...STRONG STORMS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF CALHOUN
IN MCLEAN COUNTY...AND NEAR FREDONIA IN CALDWELL COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS THEY AFFECT THEIR NEARBY COMMUNITIES.