Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2000

LATEST REGIONAL 88D LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT OVER ENTIRE CWA...SPC MONITORING FOR PSBL WW OVER IL
AND IN ATTM. ONGOING CONVECTION IS IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER STORMS. 18Z SFC WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS TRY TO KEEP THIS
BOUNDARY WELL WEST OF FA. WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST AGREE WITH SPC CONFERENCE CALL THAT MOST CONVECTION IN
PAH CWA WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED...HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE...MAINLY
WINDS...PSBLE WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FREEZING LEVEL VERY
HIGH...AROUND 14K FEET...LARGE HAIL NOT THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
CULPRIT. IN ADDITION...SOME SPEED SHEAR NOTED IN BNA 12Z SOUNDING
HOWEVER THE SOUNDING WAS UNI-DIRECTIONAL THUS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC CELLS.

12Z/WED MODEL RUNS AGREE BEST PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THIS EVENING
WHICH GOES ALONG WITH BEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE SCATTERED IN TONIGHT ZONE. MAY BE ABLE TO USE JUST EVENING
WORDING IN SEMO AND PARTS OF SIL...WILL MONITOR AND MAKE CALL CLOSER
TO PRESS TIME. WINDS NEVER REALLY GO NORTH THROUGH 60 HOUR VIA ETA
OR 72 HR VIA AVN. FEEL THIS IS RSNBLE SINCE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE FA. THUS...
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AFTER 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE US. IN ADDITION...MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HIGH THROUGHOUT THE RUN...THUS NO REAL CHANGE
IN AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH MRF ADVERTISING FROPA ON SUNDAY. GOING FCST
ADDRESSES THIS WELL AND SEE NO CHANGES TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS.

WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS
OTHER THAN CONVECTION INFLUENCES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

.PAH...NONE.

HOOPER

KYZ001>006-142350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2000

...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 615 PM...THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED
FROM LA CENTER...TO JUST EAST OF BARDWELL AND CLINTON KENTUCKY...
MOVING NORTHEAST BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CARLISLE COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...
ALONG WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AN HOUR.

YOU SHOULD SECURE OR BRING IN LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS LAWN
FURNITURE...BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA.

THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH NEAR WEST PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...WINGO AND
FULTON BY 645 PM.

SMITH