Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AREA ALONG A KMVN-KUNO LINE...THEN TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KEVV-KCGI-KPBF LINE. THE BEST
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WAS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE 50 KNOT H8 AND 90 KNOT H3 JET MAXIMA
WERE ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS. AT ALL LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

LATEST KPAH 88D LOOP SHOWS TWO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
DEVELOPING IN THE JUICY 70 DEGREE DEW POINT AIR RIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. ALSO IN THIS ZONE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR -7 AND SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR
2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE 12Z ETA/NGM/AVN MODEL RUNS...THE AVN APPEARS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ETA
SOLUTION SHOWED VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SO BY 00Z SAT...COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE KEEPING
NORTHERN AREAS DRY. OF COURSE...THIS DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS
ARE AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OCCURRED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALL THREE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. EXPECT THE SKY TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR NOSES INTO THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
THIS CLEARING TREND OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. WITH FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. BOTH THE AVN
AND ETA BRING A DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WARRANTS THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...FWC/FAN MOS NUMBERS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. SO WILL USE A COMBINATION OF BOTH FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.PAH...NONE.

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021845-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH ST.
LOUIS TO SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI AT MIDDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE THREAT
OF STORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES INTO TENNESSEE
AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

YORK

ILZ083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ004-005-007-010-014-018-019-
MOZ086-087-100-107>112-022130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CDT FRI JUN 2 2000

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

AT 230 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PADUCAH SHOWED
A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 35 MILES WIDE...EXTENDED FROM NEAR
PRINCETON INDIANA TO NEAR MARION ILLINOIS TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH...WITH THE ENTIRE
LINE SAGGING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

AT 140 PM...LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN VIENNA ILLINOIS
DUE TO STRONG WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THEN WEAKENING OF STORMS...
WHICH CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. THESE WINDS COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH...AND RESULT IN DOWN TREE LIMBS.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SOUTH-EASTWARD DRIFT INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 430 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WATCH FOR STANDING OR
RISING WATER IN AREAS THAT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.