Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA CLEARLY DEMARCATE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PERCHED JUST TO SW OF PAH FA...RETURNING NWARD. 12Z UA
ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM FRONT EXTENDS THRU H7...HELPING INDUCE
AM/EARLY PM CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/2 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z
MODEL DATA PICKING UP ON VORT MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE SW FLOW. THIS IS BEGINNING TO TOUCH OFF SCT TSRA FM AR-NWARD
INTO MO...AND H5-H3 ANALYSIS REVEALS JET STREAK LIFTING OUT OF SRN
PLAINS HELPING TO DRIVE THIS VORT ENERGY NWARD AND FUEL THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

DIURNAL POP SHOULD CONTINUE THRU EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SRN/SWRN
PTNS FA AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND RETURNS WARM/SOUPY AIR. VORT
MAX LIFTING NORTH WL MAKE FOR BEST UVM FIELD LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT OVER SW IL/SEMO...AND WL MONITOR CLOSELY THRU PRESS TIME FOR
FINAL COUNTY BREAK-OUTS...BUT W/RETURN OF WARM FRONT WL CONTINUE CHC POP
ENTIRE FA. COULD BE A MIDDLE OF THE NITE LULL IN ACTIVITY TIL NEXT
RIPPLE EJECTS OUT OF SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. BY THEN WARM
FRONT WL BE WELL TO THE NORTH W/WARM SOUPY/UNSTABLE AIR BACK IN
PLACE OVER ENTIRE FA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THIS RIPPLE...THEY DO AGREE IT WL EJECT NE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
PLAINS COLD FRONT. THIS WL AID UVM FIELD AND KEEP CHC CATEGORY POPS
THRU THE DAY...W/STILL BETTER CHC POPS AND STRONG STORMS COMING LATE
IN DAY AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS COLD FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES INTO AND THEN
THRU FA OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL TROF.

LAST 24 HOUR TEMP PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY ALONG GUIDANCE
LINES AND WL ACCEPT THEIR NOS...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION IN
FWC/FAN BEING ON SAT...WHERE WE'LL CHOOSE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

ILZ077-078-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ015>022-261800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1049 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT RAIN RAIN OR SPRINKLES BY MID
AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

HOOPER

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 600 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY           SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTH IL
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000                   SOUTHWEST IN/WEST KY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...AND SOUTHWEST IN.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER IN SOUTHWEST IN AND SOUTHERN IL AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MO. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR WEST
KENTUCKY.

A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS MORNING
PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH CATEGORY. AFTER
THE FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA IT WILL LEAVE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR ITS WAKE...PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO AID ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT A-NTICIPATED...HOWEVER...EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLET FOR POSSIBLE REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST.

KH