Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

12Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALS JET STREAK/PERTURBATION IDENTIFIABLE FROM H7
TO H3 IN NW FLOW UPSTREAM OF PAH FA. IR LOOPS SHOWS REMNANTS OF AM
CONVECTION CONTINUING THEIR SE DEPARTURE ACROSS TN...BUT SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHING IN NE-SW FASHION
ACROSS NRN TIER/EXTREME NERN PTNS OF PAH FA. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH OVER
HEART OF FA NOTED IN WAKE OF DEPARTING AM CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

LATEST VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE OVER PAH FA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS DEFINITIVE DEW POINT GRADIENT WITH FAR NRN/NERN
PTNS FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUDARY IS PIVOTING TO MORE OF A W-E ORIENTATION...AND IF
THIS CONTINUES...WOULD EXPECT ITS SRN PUSH WL STALL AND MOST OF SRN
SECTIONS OF FA WL REMAIN IN WARM SOUPY AIR MASS. LATEST LAPS DATA
REVEALS CAPES >3K J/KG...AND THATS PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. THIS
ALIGNS WELL W/SPC SWODY1 WHICH PAINTS ALL BUT EXTREME NRN/NERN PTNS
FA IN SLGT RISK. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WL BE
SCT...PROBABLY A COMBO OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ADVECTIVE FM SRN
PLAINS...SO WELL RETAIN CHC CATEGORY POPS THRU TONIGHT. WL WAIT
CLOSE TO PRESS TIME FOR LATEST BOUNDARY LOCATION AND FINAL COUNTY
BREAK-OUT...INCLUDING DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO DROP POPS FM ANY
OF FAR NRN OR NERN COUNTIES.

A DIFFICULT MODEL DIAGNOSIS IS WHAT TO EXPECT LATE TONIGHT-THU AS
VORT MAX EJECTS OUT OF PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS OVER PAH FA WL
BE STABILIZING AS IT SAGS SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER MODELS SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVE MAX
MRH/QPF OVERTOP SAID HIGH AND PAH FA BY 12Z...AS IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX
MOVES PRETTY MUCH W-E ACROSS AR/TN BORDER ZONES. AM RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO
MODELS AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUNCH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF IT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A W-E PIVOT. AM THEREFORE INCLINED TO LINGER A
CHC POP THRU THU...FM BEST CHC SRN/SWRN SECTIONS TO LEAST CHC NRN/NERN
PTNS FA...CLOSELY IN TUNE W/SPC SWODY2.

FWC NOS OBVIOUSLY A RESULT OF DRAGGING FRONT ALL THE WAY THRU THE
FA...AS TEMPS FOR THU ARE 7-10F COOLER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. WL
GENERALLY TAILOR ZFP W/WARMER THERMAL APPROACH OF HANGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FA...PROBABLY MORE A RESEMBLANCE OF WARMER FAN NOS
SAVE FOR POSSIBLY FAR NERN PTNS.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-242000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY          SOUTHEAST MO/WEST KY
1201 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000                  SOUTHWEST IN/SOUTH IL

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
...TO MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS...TO NEAR BLOOMINGTON INDIANA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. THE
FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS
FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH.

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS ACTIVATION
IS POSSIBLE.

SPODEN

KYZ001>013-242330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY FROM PADUCAH TO MURRAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...SO THE STORMS MAY
QUICKLY BEGIN TO PRODUCE HAIL OF ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE STORMS MAY ALSO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SEVERE THRESHOLD...SO STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.

PRESLEY

KYZ016-020-021-242315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
525 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE PENNYRILE REGION...

AT 525 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN MADISONVILLE AND CALHOUN IN WESTERN KENTUCKY/S PENNYRILE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...SO
THE STORMS MAY QUICKLY BEGIN TO PRODUCE HAIL OF ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE STORMS MAY ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SEVERE THRESHOLD...SO STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO
35 MPH.

PRESLEY

KYZ011>013-017-022-242330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST KENTUCKY...

AT 549 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM BENTON TO CADIZ KENTUCKY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH...IT WILL IMPACT SUCH COMMUNITIES AS HOPKINSVILLE AND
TRENTON THROUGH 630 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA...SO THE STORMS MAY QUICKLY BEGIN TO PRODUCE HAIL OF ONE-
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE
STORMS MAY ALSO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SEVERE THRESHOLD...SO
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRESLEY