Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2000

MAIN CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE SHOWER COVERAGE AND DURATION AND
NIGHTTIME FOG.

12Z MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR MASS FIELDS AND OVERALL SOLUTION OF
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW TO ELONGATED TROF. AVN
SUGGESTS TROF MAY MEANDER AROUND LOWER MISS VALLEY MID WEEK AS
NORTHERN STREAM S/W CUTS THRU NORTH END. AVN A BIT FASTER WITH S/W
RESULTING IN TROF AXIS SHIFTING FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THAN ETA.
WILL TAKE BLEND OF ALL MODELS.

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE CAP RESULTED IN QUICK CU-UP WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE PREVALENT IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE PAH FA.  FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN SWIN AROUND 1720Z IS
NOT SURPRISING WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY FROM UPPER
LOW. AFTER SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
THEM LINGERING ON EAST SIDE OF FA THAN WEST.  WILL TAILOR POPS TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT THEY WILL BE CHANCE POPS.  PLAN TO DROP POPS FOR
SEMO ZONES TONIGHT AND CRANK THEM BACK UP MONDAY.

MODEL PW 1.5 ISOLINE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER PAH FA THRU TUESDAY. LOCAL
DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SPOT FLOODING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF FA
DURING DIURNAL HEATING SO WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THERE.

WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IN ALL ZONES WEST OF KY LAKES AND
WABASH RVR. WILL TREND TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

FOR EXTENDED...MRF BRINGING GULF THING ONSHORE LA THURSDAY AND
PUSHING A TROPICAL SURGE AHEAD OF IT.  THIS COULD PUT AREA INTO
SUBSIDENCE RING ON THURSDAY KEEPING IT DRY...ALTHOUGH HARD TO
PINPOINT SUCH STUFF THIS EARLY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP ONGOING MENTION 
OF SHOWERS/STORMS THRU PERIOD.

.PAH...NONE.

SDB

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-301800-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 700 AM CDT MONDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2000

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
AREA TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...BUT WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WHERE INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED. THE MOST ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER KENTUCKY EAST OF THE LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...THEREFORE ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SHEAR IS
QUITE WEAK. THE MOST LIKELY RESULT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

IN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER STORMS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WHILE STORMS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SDB

ILZ077-078-083-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-018-019-301900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2000

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED NEAR POSEYVILLE AND EAST OF GRIFFIN
INDIANA...

AT 1220 PM...A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD THREE MILES
NORTH OF POSEYVILLE. NO MOVEMENT WAS REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

AT 1221 PM...POSEY COUNTY DISPATCH RELAYED A REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
EAST OF GRIFFIN...JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NO MOVEMENT WAS
REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE FUNNEL
CLOUD REPORTS MAY BE DEALING WITH THE SAME SIGHTING.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IS VERY UNSTABLE. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND ALOFT. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE...CAN COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SHARP UP-DRAFTS...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY REFERRED TO AS COLD AIR FUNNELS AND
CAN OCCUR WITH OR WITHOUT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE BRIEF IN NATURE AND MAY PERIODICALLY TOUCH
THE GROUND. THESE COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT CAN CAUSE
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

SMITH