Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
KCMI-KBLV-NR KSGF. KPAH 88D SHOWS SOME PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION
ACROSS PAH FA...WITH LATEST IR ENHANCEMENT SHOWING MOST VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT/INCREASING LTG STRIKES ENTERING EVV TRI-STATE
AREA...WHERE LAPS DATA REVEALS SBCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.

OTHERWISE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE BEHIND SURFACE FRONT WHERE THERE IS
LTL/NO CAP. HOWEVER...WITH PM HEATING...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE IN AT LEAST SCT FASHION AS CAP SLOWLY ERODES. THIS WL HELP
ASCENDING PARCELS WHICH HAVE HAD TO OVERCOME WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
THAT WERE MUTING OVERALL LAPSE RATES.

AFTER NIGHTFALL...FRONTAL BOUNDARYS MOVEMENT BECOMES MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. ETA HAS HAD MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION...PIVOTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MORE OF A W-E ORIENTATION AND STALLING IT ALONG OH
RIVER. NGM HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION BUT LATEST RUN IS PERHAPS
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE W/TROPICAL RETURN AND THUS HAS SLIGHTLY LESS OF
A PIVOT TO THE BOUNDARY...IE KEEPS MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION. AVN
CONTINUES TO DRIVE BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU FA BEFORE STALLING...THOUGH
THE 12Z RUN IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. AM INCLINED TO
CONTINUE ETA TREND OF PIVOTING AND STALLING BOUNDARY AS MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT CENTER MOVES NE AND NEW SRN PLAINS LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
ALSO AM STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY 850MB FRONTAL POSITION...WHICH EVEN
AVN AGREES WITH ETA/NGM ON STALLING ALONG/NORTH OF OH RIVER.

RESULTANT POPS WL BE UPPED TO HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
TONIGHT...TAPERING TO MORE OF A SCT NATURE BY SAT PM...AS WE
ANTICIPATE BOUNDARY TO BE LAYED IN QUASI-STATIONARY MANNER ALONG NRN
TIER OF FA. LATEST FFG VALUES VERY HIGH...SO EVEN W/HIGH POPS
CONTINUING BELIEVE THRESHOLD IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FFA
CONSIDERATION FOR NOW. MODELS DO EJECT NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS
OUT OF BROAD UPPER CYCLONE...AND THIS WL KEEP CHC SHRA/TSRA THRU AT
LEAST SUNDAY...WHEN PRIMARY SRN PLAINS LOW EJECTS AND PERHAPS BRINGS
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO DAILY CHC PCPN BY THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY

ILZ077-078-083-INZ081-162350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

AT 550 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
WABASH COUNTY...HAVING JUST MOVED THROUGH WEST SALEM. ANOTHER AREA
OF STRONG STORMS WAS NOTED ENTERING WHITE COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST...OR JUST NORTH OF EAST...AT ABOUT 35 MPH.

EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO AFFECT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND NORTH
OF A MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS TO HAZELTON INDIANA LINE BY 650 PM. WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF STRONG STORMS INCLUDE MILL SHOALS
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS FROM AROUND CENTERVILLE ILLINOIS TO NEAR
CRAWLEYVILLE INDIANA.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.

DH

ILZ075-076-080-081-084-MOZ076-086-087-100-170100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES
OF PERRY...CAPE GIRARDEAU...BOLLINGER...AND WAYNE.

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
COUNTIES OF PERRY...JEFFERSON...WAYNE...JACKSON...AND FRANKLIN.

DH

ILZ077-078-082-085-088-MOZ109-110-170100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
714 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES
OF BUTLER AND STODDARD.

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
COUNTIES OF EDWARDS...WABASH...HAMILTON...WILLIAMSON...AND UNION
COUNTIES.

DH

ILZ083-086-087-089>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-
018>020-MOZ111-112-114-170100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
COUNTIES OF SCOTT...MISSISSIPPI...AND NEW MADRID.

THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES OF WHITE...SALINE...GALLATIN...
JOHNSON...POPE...HARDIN....ALEXANDER...PULASKI...AND MASSAC ARE
STILL IN THE WATCH.

SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH INCLUDE GIBSON...
PIKE...POSEY...VANDERBURGH...WARRICK...AND SPENCER.

WESTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH INCLUDE CARLISLE...
BALLARD...MCCRACKEN...LIVINGSTON...CRITTENDEN...UNION...HENDERSON...
DAVIESS....WEBSTER...AND MCLEAN.

THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE COUNTIES ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS TO GREENVILLE MISSOURI.

DH

ILZ083-086-087-089>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-
018>020-MOZ111-112-114-170115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
800 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL COUNTIES AFFECTED IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.