Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

12Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALS JET STREAK/PERTURBATION IDENTIFIABLE FROM H7
TO H3 IN NW FLOW UPSTREAM OF PAH FA. IR LOOPS SHOWS REMNANTS OF AM
CONVECTION CONTINUING THEIR SE DEPARTURE ACROSS TN...BUT SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHING IN NE-SW FASHION
ACROSS NRN TIER/EXTREME NERN PTNS OF PAH FA. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH OVER
HEART OF FA NOTED IN WAKE OF DEPARTING AM CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

LATEST VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE OVER PAH FA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS DEFINITIVE DEW POINT GRADIENT WITH FAR NRN/NERN
PTNS FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUDARY IS PIVOTING TO MORE OF A W-E ORIENTATION...AND IF
THIS CONTINUES...WOULD EXPECT ITS SRN PUSH WL STALL AND MOST OF SRN
SECTIONS OF FA WL REMAIN IN WARM SOUPY AIR MASS. LATEST LAPS DATA
REVEALS CAPES >3K J/KG...AND THATS PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. THIS
ALIGNS WELL W/SPC SWODY1 WHICH PAINTS ALL BUT EXTREME NRN/NERN PTNS
FA IN SLGT RISK. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WL BE
SCT...PROBABLY A COMBO OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ADVECTIVE FM SRN
PLAINS...SO WELL RETAIN CHC CATEGORY POPS THRU TONIGHT. WL WAIT
CLOSE TO PRESS TIME FOR LATEST BOUNDARY LOCATION AND FINAL COUNTY
BREAK-OUT...INCLUDING DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO DROP POPS FM ANY
OF FAR NRN OR NERN COUNTIES.

A DIFFICULT MODEL DIAGNOSIS IS WHAT TO EXPECT LATE TONIGHT-THU AS
VORT MAX EJECTS OUT OF PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS OVER PAH FA WL
BE STABILIZING AS IT SAGS SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER MODELS SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVE MAX
MRH/QPF OVERTOP SAID HIGH AND PAH FA BY 12Z...AS IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX
MOVES PRETTY MUCH W-E ACROSS AR/TN BORDER ZONES. AM RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO
MODELS AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUNCH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF IT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A W-E PIVOT. AM THEREFORE INCLINED TO LINGER A
CHC POP THRU THU...FM BEST CHC SRN/SWRN SECTIONS TO LEAST CHC NRN/NERN
PTNS FA...CLOSELY IN TUNE W/SPC SWODY2.

FWC NOS OBVIOUSLY A RESULT OF DRAGGING FRONT ALL THE WAY THRU THE
FA...AS TEMPS FOR THU ARE 7-10F COOLER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. WL
GENERALLY TAILOR ZFP W/WARMER THERMAL APPROACH OF HANGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FA...PROBABLY MORE A RESEMBLANCE OF WARMER FAN NOS
SAVE FOR POSSIBLY FAR NERN PTNS.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

KYZ011-013-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

AT 629 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LYON/CALDWELL COUNTY LINE IN WEST
KENTUCKY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH...IT WILL IMPACT
SUCH COMMUNITIES AS CONFEDERATE AND COBB KENTUCKY THROUGH
7 PM. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

PRESLEY

ILZ080-081-084>094-KYZ001>022-250045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... PERRY...FRANKLIN...JACKSON...WILLIAMSON...
SALINE...GALLATIN...UNION...JOHNSON...POPE...HARDIN...ALEXANDER...
PULASKI...AND MASSAC.

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... BALLARD...CARLISLE...HICKMAN...FULTON...
MCCRACKEN...GRAVES...LIVINGSTON...MARSHALL...CALLOWAY...CRITTENDEN
...LYON...CALDWELL...TRIGG...UNION...HENDERSON...DAVIESS...WEBSTER
...MCLEAN...MUHLENBERG...HOPKINS...CHRISTIAN...AND TODD.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN EASILY PRODUCE AS
MUCH DAMAGE AS A WEAK TORNADO. IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS SIGHTED...FIND SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR...OR IN THE BASEMENT.

YORK

KYZ011>013-017-022-250030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR HOPKINSVILLE...

AT 650 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING ALONG A LINE FROM LAMASCO TO ELKTON KENTUCKY. AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH...THEY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE HOPKINSVILLE AREA. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. REMEMBER...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

PRESLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
657 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0654 PM    5 N ELKTON                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   TODD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
740 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0654 PM    5 N ELKTON                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   TODD

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
755 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
UNTIL 2 AM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...CARTER...RIPLEY...WAYNE...BUTLER...PERRY...
BOLLINGER...CAPE GIRARDEAU...SCOTT...STODDARD...MISSISSIPPI...AND
NEW MADRID.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE WEATHER IS SIGHTED...SEEK SHELTER IN
A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR IN THE BASEMENT.

PRESLEY