Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2000

LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN SEABOARD
AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OK. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LOW SLOOOWLY TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOW IT STEADILY WEAKENING ALONG THE WAY. AS A
RESULT...THE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...DYNAMICS
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SO FEEL THAT RW/TRW WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO WILL USE MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING WORDING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL
BE THE TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE LIFT AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE IMPULSES AS WELL AS THE OMEGA FIELDS SO WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO GET FANCY WITH THE TIMING.

SINCE AIRMASS GOES VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 5 DAYS...WILL ONLY
DIVIDE INTO TWO GROUPS AND FOLLOW GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-032000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTH IL
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2000           SOUTHWEST IN/WEST KY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY
...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION EXTENDING
FROM KANSAS CITY THROUGH ST LOUIS TO NEAR LEXINGTON. AS THIS BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH TODAY IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. HOWEVER...
WITH THE BOUNDARY ALREADY NORTH OF QUAD STATE AND VERY LITTLE SPEED
OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE BEST TIME FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH AROUND 25 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS EVENT.

HOOPER

KYZ012-017-021-022-032300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOPKINSVILLE AREA...

AT 340 PM...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HOPKINSVILLE
SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF CHRISTIAN...TODD AND INTO MUHLENBERG COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES LIKELY. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AROUND
25 MPH.

WATCH FOR STANDING WATER ON ROADS TYPICALLY AFFECTED DURING A VERY
HEAVY RAIN. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED AS WELL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

NOLES