Tornado Warning 16, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

NEXT 24 HR OR SO WILL BE INTERESTING, TO SAY THE LEAST. SEVERE
T-STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH CAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG, FAVORABLE SHEAR, AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS
WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO TODAYS SPRINGLIKE TEMPS, WITH TEMPS ON
THU 30-40 DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LIKELY
BEGINNING IN FAR NW LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF NW QUARTER OF
AREA ON THU. PRECIP TYPE PARAMETERS FROM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON SE-WARD EXTENT OF ANY CHANGEOVER, BUT CONSIDERING
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SOURCE MOVING IN, STILL COULD SEE
A POSSIBLE MIX ON THU AS FAR S AND E AS OKC AND SPS. WITH POLAR AIR
MOVING S AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING N TO MEET IT, MOST
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THU. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS COMING
MORE INTO QUESTION FOR OUR AREA, AS THE LEAD SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF TX WILL LIKELY SWEEP MUCH OF THE RICH MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
STATES. HOWEVER, MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS CONSIDERED MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WE WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO ON WINTER STORM WATCH IN NW
ZONES, MAINLY FOR THU. AS FOR UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES, PREFER SLOWER MOVEMENT INITIALLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO POPS
BEING EXTENDED INTO THU EVENING MOST AREAS, AND INTO EARLY FRI IN
THE SE. HOWEVER, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE OUT OF AREA BY
FRI IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

FOR DAYS 3-5, WILL BASICALLY DEFER TO HPC GUIDANCE AS THERE IS
LITTLE TIME LEFT TO THOROUGHLY EXAMINE THE PLETHORA OF MEDIUM RANGE
SCENARIOS. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SAT WITH NEXT
SYSTEM, WHICH NOW LOOKS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ON TODAYS AVN THAN IT
DID ON LAST NIGHTS MRF. DRY SUN, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
MON AS ECMWF AND UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON NEXT FULL LAT TROF
SETTING UP TO OUR W.

MARCH MADNESS AT ITS BEST, AND TIMING COULD NOT BE BETTER.

FCSTID = 24
OKC   38  40  27  49 /  60  80  50  10
HBR   36  40  25  49 /  60  80  40  10
SPS   40  42  32  51 /  50  80  50  10
GAG   29  32  18  41 /  80  90  20  10
PNC   35  38  25  47 /  70  80  40  10
DUA   47  48  35  52 /  40  80  70  30

.OUN...
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR \LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ZONES
OKZ004>005...OKZ009>010.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY ZONES OKZ006-007-011-014-015.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101530-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO LAWTON TO CROWELL TEXAS. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A MEDFORD TO GAGE LINE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING STILLWATER TO HOBART LINE BY
MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MORNING.  AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BY LATE AFTERNOON... THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA AND ENCOUNTERS THIS AIRMASS.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
STAY ALERT TO AFTERNOON WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

33/DLF

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    2 NW ALVA                 OK   0.75 INCH HAIL.
03/15/00   WOODS                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    BURLINGTON                OK   0.75 INCH HAIL.
03/15/00   ALFALFA                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 PM    2 W BURLINGTON            OK   1.25 INCH HAIL.
03/15/00   ALFALFA                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

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WWUS30 KOKC 152203
LSROKC
LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 PM    10 SE MUTUAL              OK   0.75 INCH HAIL.
03/15/00   WOODWARD                       REPORTED BY COOP.

0420 PM    DRIFTWOOD                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/15/00   ALFALFA                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

TL