Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CST WED NOV 01 2000

WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED YESTERDAY ABOUT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT HAS DEFINITELY SLOWED AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH THROUGH PLAINS. IT HAS HOWEVER LEFT A FARILY STRONG SHORTWAVE
BEHIND WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVING PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SLOW...BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST
TODAY AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP SOME POPS GOING CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TOMORROW FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT WEST.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN MY EYES...AS TO WHAT
IS GOING TO OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME MOISTURE
MOVING BACK NORTH OVER THIS RELATIVLEY COOL SURFACE RIDGE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK NORTH AT LEAST THRU
SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR CONSISTANCY SAKE...WITH BEST
CHANCES SOUTH. MODELS ALSO SHOW NEXT UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND NOT MAKING A MOVE EAST UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AND THINK THIS WILL BE WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAJORITY OF AREA.

ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN COOLER AIR
MOVING IN AND DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER MOVING BACK NORTH. FOR FRIDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S. WILL KEEP THE COOL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

FCSTID = 30
OKC   72  47  64  46 /  70  30   0  10
HBR   70  45  64  46 /  30   0   0  20
SPS   73  47  68  48 /  70  10   0  20
GAG   63  36  58  39 /  20   0   0   0
PNC   73  45  63  43 /  70  10   0   0
DUA   75  55  68  52 /  80  60  10  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CST WED NOV 1 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF AN
OKLAHOMA CITY TO WAURIKA LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND SMALL TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE
THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OFo THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CJS