Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2000

AFTERNOON HEATING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
INCREASED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS. STLT ALSO SUGGESTING A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS. THE SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AFFECTING MAINLY
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING... BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE PERSIST. UPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHWEST US WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. LOWEST POPS
ON MON WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE TEMPORARY RETROGRADING
OF THE EASTERN US UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME
SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH
MID WEEK... THUS MOST OF THE DAY TO DAY TEMP CHANGES WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD COVER.

LOOKING FARTHER OUT... ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. MRF TRIES TO MAINTAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH WHILE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEVADA AND DIG IT SOUTH INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL MRF SOLUTION DOESN'T AGREE... IT DOES HAVE A FEW ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT ARE SIMILAR. MRF ALSO BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON FRIDAY. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE WEEK... BUT WON'T GO WHOLE HOG
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FCSTID = 32
OKC   63  72  64  72 /  50  40  50  60
HBR   63  72  63  72 /  50  50  |60  60
SPS   66  78  66  76 /  50  50  60  60
GAG   60  71  61  72 /  30  40  50  60
PNC   63  72  63  72 /  60  40  50  60
DUA   66  77  66  75 /  50  30  40  50

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    LAWTON                    OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
10/22/00   COMANCHE                       COUNTY SHERIFF

0536 PM    5 S CALUMET               OK   TORNADO
10/22/00   CANADIAN                       NWS EMPLOYEE

0545 PM    2 W CYRIL                 OK   .75 INCH HAIL
10/22/00   CADDO                          AMATEUR RADIO

0552 PM    4 S ANADARKO              OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
10/22/00   CADDO                          yAMATEUR RADIO

FM