Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2000

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIE OUT THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE STARTED THINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
WITH ANY STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IN PROXIMITY OF THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH TX. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE THREAT
THERE WITH ANY STORMS.

DRIER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NORTH AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER THEN, THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAKING
THE ATMOSPHERE LESS CONDUCIVE TO MOIST CONVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAY SEE MORE STORMS IN SOME SOUTHWEST ZONES...ESPECIALLY OUR
SOUTHERN TX COUNTIES...WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY WEEK STILL LOOKS HUMID AND VERY HOT. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED LATER FOR EVEN HOTTER AND HUMID
CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 9
OKC   74 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
HBR   72 103  73 104 /  20   0   0   0
SPS   73 102  75 104 /  20  20   0   0
GAG   70 100  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
PNC   67 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
DUA   75 100  76 101 /  20   0   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>013-131930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2000

ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...JUST EAST OF WICHITA
FALLS.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE STRONG HEATING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 98
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE...RESULTING IN RATHER LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES BY THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

WIND SHEAR IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
RATHER SHORT-LIVED PULSE TYPE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH FOR A SHORT TIME AS THEY
COLLAPSE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY...DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
LEVELS.

 MILLER