Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015AM CST THU MAR 2 2000

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT THINGS SEEM TO
BE HANDLED WELL ALREADY. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEPT
CATEGORICAL WORDING IN ZONE FORECASTS ALL AREAS. BEGINNINGS OF NEW
ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS STILL APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ELEVATED LARGE HAILERS POSSIBLE WITH NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS. WITH PROGD SHEAR PROFILE...AM CONCERNED ABOUT ANY CONVECTION
IN WARM SECTOR (NORTH TEXAS) TRAVERSING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...SO WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY. UPDATED
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NORMAL TIME...1230 PM. WILL
BE PERFORMING AN 18Z SOUNDING PER REQUEST FROM SPC.

TEMPS SORT OF A GUESSING GAME TODAY...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE NEAR STEADY TEMPS SHOULD BE SEEN. SUCKER HOLES
IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO WARM QUICKLY...BUT WILL
JUST TRY TO GIVE A RANGE.

FCSTID = 11

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-022030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS MODERATE RISK COVERS THE AREA EAST OF A
HOBART TO ARCHER CITY TEXAS LINE...AND SOUTH OF A HOBART...TO
SULPHUR...TO ATOKA LINE. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK IS A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF A
WOODWARD TO STILLWATER LINE.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR CHILDRESS...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL STORMS INTERACT
WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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