Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000

WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY FIRST FEW PERIODS AS THINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
INTO WESTERN OK AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONT TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AND IN SOME INSTANCES INTENSITY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE STATE AND WILL INTRO SEVERE WORDING INTO ZONES. MAIN THREAT AROUND
HERE WILL BE SOME STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS FIRST PART OF DAY WITH DRY
LOW LEVELS WITH ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCERS AFTER LOW LEVELS SEE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH SYSTEM ONLY LOOKING TO HAVE EFFECTS ON CWA FOR
18 HOURS OR SO AND CONT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WILL NOT
PLAY UP THIS ASPECT OF EVENT. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
OF MANY AREAS MAY WET BULB DOWN AFTER PRECIP BEGINS AND NOT
WARMING AFTER THAT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. PARTS OF THE SOUTH COULD TRY
TO GET INTO WARM SECTOR AS WELL WHICH COULD PLAY HAVOC ON TEMPS IN
THAT PART OF STATE. THIS COULD ALSO HELP INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT
IN THAT AREA.

SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LINGERING POPS IN SE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CONT COOL ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS
EXIT TO EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO AREA SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING NEXT WAVE CLOSING
OFF AND EVEN CUTTING OFF ACROSS S CA AND BAJA AREA WITH UPPER
RIDGING TAKING CONTROL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TREND COMMENCING. LATE LOOK AT NEW MRF SHOWS WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST U.S. ON SUNDAY AS YET MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
GULF OF ALASKA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE ON MONDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUND BY THIS TIME.

THANKS FOR COORD...ICT

FCSTID = 30

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)...

OKC   56  44  56  36 / 100  60  10   0
HBR   56  40  56  34 / 100  30  10   0
SPS   64  44  60  36 / 100  30   0   0
GAG   48  34  50  30 / 100  30  10   0
PNC   50  40  50  33 / 100  60  10   0
DUA   62  48  56  38 /  80  60  20   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.