Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2000

WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPED TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...
DESPITE ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW.  TONIGHT SHOULD BE AN
EVEN BETTER CHANCE GIVEN THE FORECAST 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.  I AM STILL ON THE FENCE AS FAR AS
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE AND STILL MAY INCREASE FIRST PERIOD POPS.
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE MOISTURE NOT GOING
ANYWHERE... MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN IN THE MORNING.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND
PERIOD.  HOWEVER CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY REDUCING CHANCES OF CONTINUING
STORMS.  ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO
THE DRYLINE THAT SHOULD COME OUT INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
TOMORROW.  AT THE MOMENT THINK THAT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE POPS THERE AT THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK AS PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS AND
MOVES EAST AND AS CAPPING INVERSION INCREASES OVER THE AREA.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A RATHER WARM DAY.  NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE MRF AND CANADIAN ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.26.
OKC   62  81  63  85 /  40  30  10  10
HBR   63  84  63  86 /  30  20  10  10
SPS   65  84  65  87 /  30  20  10  10
GAG   62  87  60  87 /  20  10  10  10
PNC   62  79  63  83 /  40  30  10  20
DUA   64  77  65  83 / | 50  30  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1144 AM    1N LONE GROVE             OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/00   CARTER                         GOLF BALL SIZE
                                          VIA HAM RADIO

DW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1140 AM    2_NE LONE GROVE            OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/00   CARTER                          QUARTER SIZE
                                           VIA COUNTY EMS

DW

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2000

THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THE RISK AREA IS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO LAWTON TO ADA.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING OCCASIONAL SEVERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN FORMING NORTHEAST OF A FRONT ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER NORTH
TEXAS. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE PERSISTENCE OF THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL SHOULD
ALLOW MORE STORMS TO FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE RELATIVELY
COOL SURFACE AIRMASS NEAR THE RED RIVER.

TONIGHT THIS FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY A MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE INCREASED WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.

INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
THERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE E
SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

WR

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0152 PM    5W ADA                    OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/00   PONTOTOC                       PICKETT REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC

DW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    8N CENTRAHOMA             OK   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/05/00   COAL                           HALF DOLLAR HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER

DW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    2S BYNG                   OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/05/00   PONTOTOC                        PEA TO NICKEL SIZE
                                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC

DW