Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE ETA MODEL...AND TO AN EXTENT THE
AVN...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON HANDLING OF SURFACE
FRONT PROGD TO ENTER AREA TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WILL HAVE PROFOUND
IMPACT ON BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AGREE AND WILL FOLLOW
REASONING GIVEN BY SPC SWODY1 AND HPC QPFPFD DISCUSSIONS. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES LATER IN FIRST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ISSUE OF FUTURE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL
NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. WILL HOWEVER MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN ZONE GROUPINGS THAT RUN
ROUGHLY ALONG I-44 NORTHWARD. GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALL OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD 6 AM THIS MORNING.
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR SEVERE AND FLOOD POTENTIALS AS SMALLER SCALE
INFLUENCES BECOME CLEARER.

IN A NUTSHELL...WITH UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AND MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAKING AN ENTRANCE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE CALLED
FOR THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AND
WILL GO ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR HIGHS WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM YESTERDAYS
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES THERE.

COORD WITH ICT.

FCSTID = 11
PRELIM CCF NUMBERS...
OKC   72  62  69  57 /  80  80  70  60
HBR   75  61  70  55 /  80  80  70  50
SPS   78  63  73  58 /  80  80  60  50
GAG   67  53  65  52 / 100  80  60  60
PNC   72  6e0  67  56 /  70  80  70  60
DUA   72  63  72  61 /  40  60  70  60

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.