Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING ATTM OVER MUCH OF SWRN US WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO ERN NM WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE
SLIDING INTO SRN AZ.  DRYLINE SHARPENING FROM NEAR ATLUS SWD TO JUST
EAST OF ABI.  DEEP COLD AIR PUSHED INTO ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF OK
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..AS SUSPECTED YDAY..THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY IS
MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SRN 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA.
INITIATION IS EXPECTED VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVR PORTIONS OF SW
OK/WRN N TX WITH CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO AND MCS OVERNITE.  A LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW TO THE SW REVEALS WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION
TRYING TO GET GOING AND 850 MB LI PROGS FROM BOTH THE ETA/AVN SHOW
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING THRU THE MORNING WED. WITH
THIS SET UP..HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH COPIOUS
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WILL BE CONTINUED CENTRALA ND SOUTHEAST AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR SE ZONES TONITE.

THE SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW..WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  HOWEVER..THE PRECIP MAY EVOLVE
INTO MORE OF A STABLE LIFT/RAIN EVENT FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST.  BOTH THE ETA
AND AVN SUGGEST THAT A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO WED NITE OVER THE NE TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION
OF A NRLY LOW LEVEL SURGE ON THURSDAY..WHICH SHUD ACT TO DECREASE
PRECIP CHANCES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY..AND MEAN LONGWAVE TROF AXIS
STILL TO OUR WEST..WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY PULL POPS OUT FOR THURSDAY
WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER..IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
WITH THE NEXT RUN..POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED ON THURS AS PRECIP
AREA CONSOLIDATES TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE WEST OF OUR FA.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALSO HAS CHANGED A BIT.  BOTH THE MRF AND
CANADIAN MODELS BRING THE TAIL END OF A COLD MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR
ON FRIDAY.  MOISTURE SHUD BE VERY LIMITED WITH MEAN NWRLY FLOW..SO
WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS FOR NOW.  HOWEVER..WITH SUCH COLD AIR
IN MID LEVELS AND IMPLIED INSTABILITY DIVING SWD..WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME PRECIP ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.  WARMING
TREND WITH A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL SAT/SUN NOW. THANKS FOR COORD WITH FTW/TUL.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..SUBJECT TO CHANGE..
OKC   46  55  43  62 /  80  80  40  20
HBR   43  55  40  59 /  60  40  10  10
SPS   48  64  45  61 /  60  40  10  10
GAG   37  49  35  58 /  70  70  40  20
PNC   42  54  38  58 /  60  80  40  30
DUA   53  63  45  65 /  80  50  30  20

.OUN...
OK...FFA SE OK TONITE OKZ032-042-043-047-048-051-052.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0556 PM    HARROLD                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   WILBARGER                      HAM RADIO REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0652 PM    LAWTON                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   COMANCHE                       HAM RADIO REPORT

0545 PM    4 S ELK CITY              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   BECKHAM                        PUBLIC REPORT

JL

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
715 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0708 PM    4 E LAWTON                OK   .88 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   COMANCHE                       HAM RADIO REPORT

0655 PM    ST. LOUIS                 OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   POTTAWATOMIE                   PUBLIC REPORT

0612 PM    PAULS VALLEY              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/28/00   GARVIN                         PUBLIC REPORT

JL

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