Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS COUNTIES WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY THERE AS COLDER
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ARRIVES WITH SHORTWAVE.  BETTER SHEAR PROFILE
ACROSS MAINLY TEXAS COUNTIES...ALONG WITH BETTER INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE
BEST CHANCE OF ROTATING STORMS THERE.  CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THREAT
OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~6Z.

EXPECT STORMS TO MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES AREA.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AS PW VALUES ARE RUNNING FAIRLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW.  STORM
OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY PRODUCED .33 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 20
MINUTES.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF KEEPING HIGH RH'S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER BEST LIFT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE QUIET AT THIS POINT BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...CURRENT TIMING ON
THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CWA.  WILL GENERALLY KEEP
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

NUMBERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE
FCSTID = 6/BT
OKC   51  67  43  72/  90  20   0   0
HBR   45  69  38  72/  70  10   0   0
SPS   48  73  42  76/  70  10   0   0
GAG   43  63  34  70/  70  20   0   0
PNC   51  62  41  70/  90  30   0   0
DUA   54  70  45  72/  90  20   0   0

.OUN...
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATuCH UNTIL 1Z FOR WESTERN-THIRD OF OK.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1Z FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-222100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KNOX CITY... TO VERNON... TO WALTERS... TO MARIETTA. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A TRAILING DRYLINE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE EVENING... AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
BE MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE... STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA.

A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT...OR CAPPING INVERSION... ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDDAY. HOWEVER... AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SPREADS EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON... THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WERE EVIDENCE THAT THE CAP WAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.

MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST.

THE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY PROGRESS EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... HAS LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING DURING THE DAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RATHER
MARGINAL INSTABILITIES THUS FAR ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE... MAINLY IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES.

CJS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0212 PM    STRONG CITY               OK   .88 INCH HAIL
02/22/00   ROGER MILLS

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0234 PM    12 SW OF CROWELL          TX   .75 INCH HAIL
02/22/00   FOARD

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0247 PM    CROWELL                   TX   .88 INCH HAIL
02/22/00   FOARD

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0258 PM    CR
OWELL                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
02/22/00   FOARD

CW