Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2000

MORE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING RELATED TO TRAILING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH/JET MAX. THINKING IS THAT THIS ROUND WILL BE MAINLY A MORNING
EVENT WITH MAYBE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS REMAINING IN THE SE BY
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT SOME RECOVERY OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON
...AT LEAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE 70 DEGREES.

GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER JET MAX PUSHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF RW/TRW FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN ADVECT
ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL GO WITH A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AS MODELS GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
PRECIP.  SINCE JUICY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN LOW LEVELS AND
WE ARE IN GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO REALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
RIDGE TO SHUT THINGS DOWN COMPLETELY...IT IS HARD TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY.  FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WILL COUNT ON SOME
WAA TYPE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.

NEW AVN SUPPORTS LAST NIGHTS MRF IN SWINGING AN INTENSE NEGATIVE
TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.  CANADIAN AGREES...BUT IS A
BIT SLOWER. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE AREA OF WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH IN
BROAD UPPER DIVERGENT REGION AS TROUGH MOVES IN...SO LIKELY WORDING
FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONTINUED.

SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT SUN/MON BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COOLING AFTER THE SATURDAY SYSTEM
MOVES OUT.  IN FACT...WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND LIFTING TROUGH WILL HELP
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MILD AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MIGHT
FINALLY BE IN STORE.

FCSTID = 33/DLF
OKC   72  60  74  60 /  80  50  20  40
HBR   75  62  76  62 /  80  50  20  40
SPS   75  62  76  62 /  80  50  20  40
GAG   75  59  74  60 /  20  40  20  40
PNC   72  60  74  60 /  8I0  40  20  40
DUA   72  62  76  62 /  70  40  20  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261430-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS RISK
AREA IS WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAYRE...TO ALTUS...TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
OVER MUCH WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY
MAY START OUT AS CELLULAR IN NATURE...IT IS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A
SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LEADING EDGE
OF THE STORMS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST AGAIN
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE SLIGHjT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING.

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