Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN ZONES THIS
MRNG. SAT LOOPS SHOW CLD TOPS GRDLY WARMING AND EXPECT THIS ACITIVTY
TO DIE OUT LATER THIS MRNG. BNDRY FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THIS
AFTN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS CNTRL AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MAIN SHOW
HOWEVER...WILL BE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FNT NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NRN
PLAINS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN KS AND ERN CO BY LATE AFTN AS STG
S/W MOVES FROM MT INTO NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSTMS TO DVLP
ALG THE FNT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS FNT ENCOUNTERS MOIST UNSTABLE AMS.
ETA INDICATES STRENGTHENING LOW JET OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED FEED OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AREA FROM KS INTO NRN OK WILL ALSO BE IN FAVORED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET. THUS EXPECT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF OVENIGHT. MODELS INDICATE FNT MOVING SWD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ACTUAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
SOONER AND PUSH FRTHR SOUTH AIDED BY OUTFLO FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
MODELS HAVE SIMILARITIES IN SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS SRN KS INTO
NRN OK BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
FAIRLY LOW IN NCNTRL OK THINK THRT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REACHING NRN
ZONES IS HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT FFA FOR TONIGHT. FNTL BNDRY SHUD PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONTINUED THRT OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FCSTID = 2
OKC   92  67  83  66 /  10  60  70  30
HBR   99  67  85  65 /  20  50  60  30
SPS   99  73  88  68 /  10  30  50  30
GAG   93  63  77  60 /  30  80  40  20
PNC   94  65  80  63 /  20  80  60  20
DUA   91  73  87  68 /  10  30  40  30

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES OKZ005>008...OKZ011>013.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251330-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WOODWARD TO FAIRVIEW TO PONCA CITY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  BY LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  BECAUSE OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ALFALFA...GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY...MAJOR...NOBLE...AND WOODS COUNTIES
ARE INCLUDED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS EVENING.

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