Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
240 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

ALL FORECASTS DELAYED UNTIL 400 PM.

FRONT IS NOW INTO UPSTATE NY. LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AIR FEEDING THE STORMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF ANYTHING
IS GOING TO POP THROUGH THE CAP IN EASTERN PA WITH THE 80 TO 85
TEMPS AND MID 60 DEW POINTS. LI IN THIS REGION ARE -4 TO -5...BUT
THE CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD. THINKING IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. THUS NOT INCLUDING A REST OF TODAY.

FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH REGION...AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CATEGORICAL POP.

LONGER TERM...NCEP MODELS ARE NOT THAT CONSISTENT WITH THE WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT. NCEP/S DISCUSSION FAVORS THE AVN WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT WOULD BE IN HERE FOR SUNDAY. ETA
KEEPS US IN THE NE FLOW INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE...WILL KE%EP THE GALE FOR A WHILE.

.OKX...GALE WARNING...ATLANTIC CSTL WATERS SOUTH OF LI ANZ355-353-350
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR ANZ330-335-338.

TONGUE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
814 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0813 AM    UPTON                     NY
05/18/00   SUFFOLK                        TEST MESSAGE!!

1142 AM    UPTON                     NY
05/18/00   SUFFOLK                        TEST MESSAGE

0957 PM    BRONX                     NY
05/18/00   BRONX                          TEST    TEST    TEST

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-190230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN NEW YORK
STATE...AND UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IS GENERATING A
LONG LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER ARE FOR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO ORANGE AN PUTNAM
COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NEW YORK CITY AND THE REST OF
CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. THE LAST AREA AFFECT BY THESE
STORMS WILL ME LONG ISLAND WHICH CAN ANTICIPATE THE THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

THE PRIMARILY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS IS STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY...AS WELL AS OVER INTERIOR
CONNECTICUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE
AREA IN A COOL AND DAMP AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE.

BY SATURDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD PRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING.

JST