Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000

DISC: SFC PLOT SHOWS THERE STILL IS SOME COLD AIR DAMMING SITTING
OVR THE RGN ATTM. WMFNT IS SLOWLY SNAKING ITS WAY THRU SRN NJ AND
INTO ERN PA. BEHIND THE FNT TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WL INTO THE MID AND
UPR 70S. SOME LOCATIONS ARE RPTNG LWR 80S WITH DP IN THE MID 60S.

BOTH SAT AND RADAR PIX SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT
JUST TO THE W OF THE WMFNT. NEW MOSAIC RADAR LOOP HAS SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY DVLPNG OVR NRN PA SW OF BGM/ELM. MOVMNT OF THE CELLS ARE
ARND 260/30-40KT. NEW BUFKIT SHOWS THAT OUR LOCAL AREA SHD BREAK THE
CAP ARND 19-20Z. IF THIS IS TRUE WE STL CUD GET INTO THE STRG/SVR
TSTMS FOR A FEW HRS. OUR LATEST WND VAD SHOWS THAT SOME MID LVL
COOLING IS BEGINNING TO DVLP OVRHEAD.

ALL MODELS SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME WAA TAKING PLACE AT H8 AND THERE
IS AN OMEGA FIELD THAT WLL MOVE THRU THE RGN ARND 00Z. CURRENT SFC
OBS SHOWS THAT WE ARE STRNG TO BREAK OUT FRM THE LWR DECK AND ONLY
SOME SCT AND AC. THIS WL LET THE TEMPS GO INTO THE 70S. LI/S ARE
STILL IN THE -2/-3 RANGE AND WITH A STRNG TSTM POP CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POT FOR A COUPLE OF STRG/SVR CELLS TO MOVE THRU.

WL ADD A THROUGH THIS EVE PORTION AND MENTION SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOWS THAT THE CDFNT SHD
ARRIVE ARND 03-06Z. AVN HAS A LRG AMOUNT OF QPF COMING THRU WITH THE
FNT. THIS IS NOT BAD AS LOOKING AT THE PW BUFKIT HAS US ARND 1.5IN.
SO...SOME OF THE TSTMS/SHWRS MAY BE HVY AT TIMES. WL JUST SAY SOME
WITH STRG GUSTY WINDS AND HVY DOWNPOURS.

ONCE FNT MOVES E OF THE ARE HI PRES BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND REST OF
FCST PD LKS GD.

MARINE...NO PROBLMS...WNDS/WVS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA.

.OKX...NONE.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-140430-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NY
NORTHEAST NJ AND SOUTHERN CT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THERE ALSO IS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS WILL
DESTABLIZE THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE SITUATION
AND WILL ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS
THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

GSK