Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
210 PM CST WED NOV 8 2000

CURRENTLY...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM LEX TO BWG TO N OF
BNA TO TUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S N OF FRONT AND IN THE 60S S
OF IT. A SPOTTER REPORTED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR IN HIS
GAUGE IN LAVERGNE...OR NEAR SMYRNA. THIS AMOUNT VERIES WELL WITH WSR
88D RAINFALL ESTIMATE. MOST OF THE RAIN IS N AND E OF A LAWRENCEBURG
TO MURFREESBORO TO LAFAYETTE LINE.

MODELS...AVN/ETA VERY SIMILAR. WENT WITH AVN DUE TO RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCEY AND BECAUSE IT SHOWED SHALLOW FRONT PASSING S OF
NASHVILLE LAST NIGHT AND THEN MOVING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AS
IT DID. ETA KEPT FRONT N OF AREA ON PREVIOUS RUNS. DID NOT LIKE NGM
BECAUSE CURRENT RUN KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER PLATEAU AT 0Z AND IT
PASSED NORTH OF NASHVILLE BEFORE 18Z.

FORECAST PROBLEM...TIMING OF RAIN TOMORROW AND WORDING FOR AFTERNOON
DRY SLOT...

AT 06Z AVN HAS 10 G/KG/12 HR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H8
CONVERGENCE...AND H3 DIVERGENCE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT.

BY 12Z THU THERE IS A LOW OVER THE WESTERN TN-KY BORDER MOVING NE
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CWA BY 18Z. LOW CONTINUES NE AND
OCCLUDES. THIS WILL BRING A DRY SLOT OVER CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL GET SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER N AND FILLS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES E AND FLATTENS SATURDAY WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING IN SUNDAY.

BNA WB 61/66/42/57 +82-
CSV WB 60/64/37/51 ++3-

.BNA...NONE.

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