Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
255 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH.
CURRENT POSITION (1PM) HAS IT DRAPED FROM DYERSBURG TO NASHVILLE TO
LONDON KY. THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT...IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS DRYING ALOFT QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS ARE STUBBORN TO FALL.
TEMPS STALLED OUT NEAR 95 DEGREE ACROSS THE METRO AREA...CSV HAS
REBOUNDED NICELY FROM ITS LATE START...84 AT 1PM.

FORECAST CONCERNS...EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...THEN THE PACKAGE
BECOMES A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOW MUCH WILL IT COOL?

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
MIDSTATE EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED CASES OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. SKIES
WILL LIKELY END UP PRETTY CLEAR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPLETES AND
SOURCE OF LIFT DEPARTS. FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY...
AS THERE SHOULD BE AROUND A 5 MPH WIND...WITH SOME SFC DRYING.

WE WILL SEE A WONDERFUL PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE FEW DAYS...AS HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TURN TO RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AS A DEEP (568H) UPPER LOW WILL DROP STRAIGHT
SOUTH OUT OF SE CANADA INTO VIRGINIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
NORTHERLY EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GOING NORTH...DRY AIR INFILTRATION WILL
WRING US OUT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW'S DOWN TO 0.62 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING).

DO NOT SEE ANY NASTY WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO NEAR THE GULF
COAST...AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP ALL THE WAY INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES
IN VIRGINIA BY THIS TIME...WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST...WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE REGION...LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

WITH SUCH A DEEP UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THE NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 60S WILL BE COMMON. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE...THEN GRADUAL
WARMING AFTERWARDS. RAIN AT THIS TIME...APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

ETA KEEPS US THE WARMEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVN THE COOLEST. MODELS
DEVIATED THE MOST WITH THE TEMP AND THICKNESS PATTERN.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE INTENDED FOR COORDINATION ONLY...

BNA 068/090 064/089 -000
CSV 063/083 056/082 -000

DICKSON 15