Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
255 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2000

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOWER 90S IN NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS APPARENTLY THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE...AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE FIRED UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE BEEN QUICK...BUT COPIOUS RAIN PRODUCERS. THE STRONGER CELLS
HAVE HAD DECENT OUTFLOWS TO THEM AS WELL. DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN
THE HIGHEST AXIS OF THETA-E AIR AND INSTABILITY. CLOSEST SFC BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL KY...TO BWG TO JUST SOUTH OF STL. MAIN DEW POINT FRONT
STILL ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NRN IL TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH EASTERN KY. VERY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS NOW INTO THE
70S EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONCERNS...TAD COOLER TOMORROW?...THEN MORE HEAT ON THE WAY.

STORMS OUTSIDE ARE DIURNAL...AND WILL BECOME ISOLATED THIS EVENING
BEFORE DYING OUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNDOWN. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BUT REMAIN MUGGY. PROBABLY HAVE SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.

OVERNIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO SEE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE AS UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACTING TO DEEPEN
THE TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH...
THEN EAST THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. MID LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL ENTER IN
FROM THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS REGION FIRST...BEFORE SFC TO 850 AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE INDIANA REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. STORMS WERE
ABSENT IN THESE AREAS TODAY. HIGHEST SFC TO 700 MB THETA-E AIR WILL
SHIFT ALL THE WAY TO MEM AND WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW.

WE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE TOMORROW...BUT MOISTURE DEPLETION
WILL BE ENUF THAT STORMS LOOK TO BE JUST A HOPE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
STILL NEED RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP ALMOST AN INCH TO
1.10 BY LATE AFTERNOON...K INDEX TO 18 OFF THE ETA. (ETA...BETTER OF
THE MODELS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS). ONGOING DRY FORECAST TOMORROW LOOKS
GOOD...AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGE.

WITH LOWER THETA-E AIR IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NOT AS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW NIGHT.

PATTERN CHANGES BY SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSTATE...WHILE MAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER CHANNEL STRETCHES FROM ARK
TO ILLINOIS. TOO LITTLE OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR STORMS...TOO WARM OF
TEMPS ALOFT...PLUS THERE WILL BE INCREASING DOWNWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES FROM UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY TSTRM FORMATION.
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEM ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN...SAME SCENARIO. THIS
WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM...AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE EXTENDED.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE INTENDED FOR COORDINATION ONLY...

BNA 73/92 70/93 1101
CSV 69/85 66/86 1-01

.BNA...NONE.

DICKSON 15